Alıntı yaparak yanıtlaİşte,bakış açılarımızın,analizlerimizin ve yorumlamalarımızın çakıştığı nadir "wall street" yazılarından biri
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/08/04/po...e-accelerates/
Powell's Nightmare: Wage Growth, after Signs of Losing Altitude, Re-Accelerates
-Powell, in his press conferences, keeps pointing at wage growth as a factor in services inflation, which is still raging at 6.2%. So we'll start with wage growth. Because this is interesting: Average hourly earnings of "production and non-supervisory employees" - the bulk of total employment -rose by 0.45% in July from June, the highest since November, based on surveys of establishments by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It translates into an annual rate of 5.5%, nearly double of where the Fed wants to see it to get inflation down to 2%. These "production and non-supervisory employees" include working supervisors and all employees in nonsupervisory roles, including engineers, designers, doctors and nurses, teachers, office workers, sales people, bartenders, technicians, drivers, retail workers, wait staff, construction workers, plumbers, etc.
The three-month moving average, which irons out the month-to-month zigzags, jumped to 0.41%, the highest since December:
-So pay increases are easily outpacing overall CPI inflation. But overall CPI inflation was brought down by the year-over-year plunge in energy prices that is now beginning to reverse, and price declines in some goods. But the CPI for core services is still red-hot at 6.2%. And it's in this context of services inflation that wages keep coming up:
-The number of unemployed people who are actively looking for a job dipped for the second month in a row, to 5.84 million in July, and remains near historic lows.
We have seen this phenomenon in other data: Layoffs and discharges, after ticking up for a year from the historic lows in 2022 and early 2023 amid waves of tech layoffs, fell in recent months again and are back in the historically low range. And claims for continued unemployment insurance, after rising from mid-2022 into early 2023, have also declined in recent months as even tech companies with huge layoffs, such as Google, have continued to hire, and hired each other's laid-off workers.
And this is one of the reasons why wages are re-accelerating.
-The total number of workers, including self-employed, rose by 268,000 in July, to 161.3 million, according to the survey of households, which tracks all kinds of workers, including the self-employed that are not tracked by the survey of establishments
Originally Posted by sar
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