Banka Mevduat Faizleri (ARTI PUAN/tezgah altı faiz oranları)

https://twitter.com/RefetGurkaynak/s...97662365036544

Syg,

In the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the new political era, the policy rate was kept unchanged in contrast to market expectations. In our opinion, this essentially confirms the markets’ worst fears about the TCMBs independence and the future course of economic policies in Turkey. Based on our observations, unless this policy error is addressed by an emergency rate hike very soon, the markets’ fears could translate into further substantial TRY weakness again. This would put immense pressure on corporate and bank balance sheets, and foreign creditors’ concerns about the balance sheet health of Turkey’s private sector is likely to lead to a contraction in capital flows, which would put further pressure on the currency. Consequently, Turkey would be locked in a vicious circle. Moreover, it is not as if Turkey’s economy would face only an exchange rate shock as a result of the central bank’s inaction. At the time of this writing the 10yr government bond yield is up by 175bp on the day. Thus we think Turkey’s economy is now negatively affected by both exchange rate and interest rate shocks. Unless corrective action is taken very soon, we think this combination could pave the way for a hard landing.

TCMB remains on hold in a disappointing decision

In contrast to our call and market expectations for a 100-125bp hike, the MPC today chose to keep the policy rate unchanged at 17.75%. This was the first MPC meeting after the transition to executive presidency and the appointment of the new cabinet. It also came on the heels of a substantial deterioration in inflation, which jumped to 15.4% in June – up by more than 3ppt over the previous month and more than three times the inflation target at 5%.

Ironically, the rate statement actually acknowledges the deterioration in inflation outlook and notes the generalised price increases across subsectors and highlights the risks posed on pricing behaviour by the elevated levels of inflation and inflation expectations. However, the MPC also notes a more significant rebalancing trend in economic activity, and finds it sufficient to keep the “tight� monetary stance for an extended period.

In another addition to the statement, the MPC says lagged impact of recent monetary policy decisions and contribution of fiscal policy to rebalancing process will be monitored and further tightening will be delivered if needed. It appears that the MPC thinks it has already delivered enough and will now wait to see the impact of past monetary policy moves and future fiscal policy moves.

In our opinion, the problem with this line of thinking is that the TCMB is suffering from a significant credibility gap with inflation widely expected to be about twice the target even in two years’ time, according to the Bank’s expectations survey. Hence, the TCMB does not have the luxury to sit back and wait for inflation to fall. In our view, the TCMB needs to get ahead of market expectations and overtighten if necessary to break the backward-looking price setting behaviour.

Based on our observations, the TCMB’s credibility issue is amplified by investors’ concerns regarding the central bank’s independence under the executive presidency system. These concerns emerged during President Erdogan’s visit to London in May when he promised to assume closer control of economic policy-making after the elections. Hiking rates today would have shown the markets that the TCMB’s ability to tighten is not hindered by Mr Erdogan’s transition to executive presidency.

However, the opportunity to send such a message to the markets was missed. Unfortunately, we think today’s decision essentially confirms the markets’ worst fears about the TCMB’s independence and the future course of economic policies in Turkey. Based on our observations, unless this policy error is addressed by an emergency rate hike very soon, the markets’ fears are likely to translate into further substantial TRY weakness, which would put immense pressure on corporate and bank balance sheets.

Here, we believe, it is imperative for investors to keep in mind that the corporate sector is running short FX positions to the tune of USD220bn (c. 25% of GDP) as of April, and these positions have already led to some large corporates to seek debt restructuring. Against this backdrop it is quite likely that Turkey’s foreign creditors could become concerned about the balance sheet health of Turkey’s private sector. These concerns, which would stem from TRY weakness in the first place, are likely to lead to a contraction in capital flows, which would put further pressure on the currency. Hence we believe Turkey would be locked in a vicious circle. If this negative feedback loop is not broken, we believe Turkey would be pushed dangerously close to a full blown balance of payments crisis, and an emergency rate hike seems to be the only way out of this loop.

There is one more point to note as we conclude: Market participants have often argued that hiking rates to protect the currency would shield the corporate balance sheets from exchange rate effects, but those balance sheets would be hurt by the high interest rates, in our view. Consequently, the authorities may find themselves facing a difficult choice between inflicting exchange rate damage vs interest rate damage.

Based on our observations, today’s price action demonstrates that there is no such trade-off. At the time of this writing, the 10yr government bond yield is up by more than 175bp on the day in response to the central bank’s inaction. Thus we think Turkey’s economy is now likely to be negatively affected by both exchange rate and interest rate shocks. Unless corrective action is taken very soon, we believe this combination will pave the way for a hard landing.

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Originally Posted by Dudu

In the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the new political era, the policy rate was kept unchanged in contrast to market expectations. In our opinion, this essentially confirms the markets’ worst fears about the TCMBs independence and the future course of economic policies in Turkey. Based on our observations, unless this policy error is addressed by an emergency rate hike very soon, the markets’ fears could translate into further substantial TRY weakness again. This would put immense pressure on corporate and bank balance sheets, and foreign creditors’ concerns about the balance sheet health of Turkey’s private sector is likely to lead to a contraction in capital flows, which would put further pressure on the currency. Consequently, Turkey would be locked in a vicious circle. Moreover, it is not as if Turkey’s economy would face only an exchange rate shock as a result of the central bank’s inaction. At the time of this writing the 10yr government bond yield is up by 175bp on the day. Thus we think Turkey’s economy is now negatively affected by both exchange rate and interest rate shocks. Unless corrective action is taken very soon, we think this combination could pave the way for a hard landing.

TCMB remains on hold in a disappointing decision

In contrast to our call and market expectations for a 100-125bp hike, the MPC today chose to keep the policy rate unchanged at 17.75%. This was the first MPC meeting after the transition to executive presidency and the appointment of the new cabinet. It also came on the heels of a substantial deterioration in inflation, which jumped to 15.4% in June – up by more than 3ppt over the previous month and more than three times the inflation target at 5%.

Ironically, the rate statement actually acknowledges the deterioration in inflation outlook and notes the generalised price increases across subsectors and highlights the risks posed on pricing behaviour by the elevated levels of inflation and inflation expectations. However, the MPC also notes a more significant rebalancing trend in economic activity, and finds it sufficient to keep the “tight� monetary stance for an extended period.

In another addition to the statement, the MPC says lagged impact of recent monetary policy decisions and contribution of fiscal policy to rebalancing process will be monitored and further tightening will be delivered if needed. It appears that the MPC thinks it has already delivered enough and will now wait to see the impact of past monetary policy moves and future fiscal policy moves.

In our opinion, the problem with this line of thinking is that the TCMB is suffering from a significant credibility gap with inflation widely expected to be about twice the target even in two years’ time, according to the Bank’s expectations survey. Hence, the TCMB does not have the luxury to sit back and wait for inflation to fall. In our view, the TCMB needs to get ahead of market expectations and overtighten if necessary to break the backward-looking price setting behaviour.

Based on our observations, the TCMB’s credibility issue is amplified by investors’ concerns regarding the central bank’s independence under the executive presidency system. These concerns emerged during President Erdogan’s visit to London in May when he promised to assume closer control of economic policy-making after the elections. Hiking rates today would have shown the markets that the TCMB’s ability to tighten is not hindered by Mr Erdogan’s transition to executive presidency.

However, the opportunity to send such a message to the markets was missed. Unfortunately, we think today’s decision essentially confirms the markets’ worst fears about the TCMB’s independence and the future course of economic policies in Turkey. Based on our observations, unless this policy error is addressed by an emergency rate hike very soon, the markets’ fears are likely to translate into further substantial TRY weakness, which would put immense pressure on corporate and bank balance sheets.

Here, we believe, it is imperative for investors to keep in mind that the corporate sector is running short FX positions to the tune of USD220bn (c. 25% of GDP) as of April, and these positions have already led to some large corporates to seek debt restructuring. Against this backdrop it is quite likely that Turkey’s foreign creditors could become concerned about the balance sheet health of Turkey’s private sector. These concerns, which would stem from TRY weakness in the first place, are likely to lead to a contraction in capital flows, which would put further pressure on the currency. Hence we believe Turkey would be locked in a vicious circle. If this negative feedback loop is not broken, we believe Turkey would be pushed dangerously close to a full blown balance of payments crisis, and an emergency rate hike seems to be the only way out of this loop.

There is one more point to note as we conclude: Market participants have often argued that hiking rates to protect the currency would shield the corporate balance sheets from exchange rate effects, but those balance sheets would be hurt by the high interest rates, in our view. Consequently, the authorities may find themselves facing a difficult choice between inflicting exchange rate damage vs interest rate damage.

Based on our observations, today’s price action demonstrates that there is no such trade-off. At the time of this writing, the 10yr government bond yield is up by more than 175bp on the day in response to the central bank’s inaction. Thus we think Turkey’s economy is now likely to be negatively affected by both exchange rate and interest rate shocks. Unless corrective action is taken very soon, we believe this combination will pave the way for a hard landing.

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Sayın Dudu , izninizle özet geçiyorum;
“Sıvadı”

Hocam 300k icin aktif gunlukteyim dolara gecmek mantıklı bu seviyeden sonra temdit olarak ne oneriyorsunuz yoksa fx target dan al sat mi yapalım

SM-G935F cihazımdan hisse.net mobile app kullanarak gönderildi.

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Originally Posted by Dudu

https://twitter.com/RefetGurkaynak/s...97662365036544

Syg,

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Sn. dudu , böyle kıymetli hocalardan zaten az kaldı. Paylaşım yaparak adamın başını yakmayın. Sonra pembe domates yemekten ifadeni alırlar . :)))

Dolar mevduat i maksimum 32 gün mu yapabiliyoruz ertesi ay yuksekten mi almis oluyoruz yani

SM-G935F cihazımdan hisse.net mobile app kullanarak gönderildi.

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Originally Posted by YapraksızYonca

Sayın Dudu , izninizle özet geçiyorum;
“Sıvadıâ€�

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Eylül ayın da da tüy dikme töreni var


:whistling:

Grup 2 kredilerine BDDK ayarı gelecek - Bloomberg HT
http://www.bloomberght.com/haberler/...-ayari-gelecek

https://twitter.com/mkozturk/status/1021680377692336129

Son dakika! Ali Koç, Fenerbahçe'nin borcunu açıkladı! (Fenerbahçe'nin borcu ne kadar?) | Süper Lig Haberleri
https://www.haberturk.com/son-dakika...aberturkWidget

Bankaların duruma da Fener'in durumuna benziyor galiba

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Originally Posted by memorex

Son dakika! Ali Koç, Fenerbahçe'nin borcunu açıkladı! (Fenerbahçe'nin borcu ne kadar?) | Süper Lig Haberleri
https://www.haberturk.com/son-dakika...aberturkWidget

Bankaların duruma da Fener'in durumuna benziyor galiba

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spor klüplerini kurtarmak için taraftarlardan yardım toplasınlar. bakalım gerçekten sarı lacivert, sarı kırmızı falan akıyo muymuş kanları...

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Originally Posted by memorex

Bankaların duruma da Fener'in durumuna benziyor galiba

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yapmayın hocam fener batmış gözüküyor.. bankaların hiçbiri bu durumda değil..

adamlar %49 dan faktoring e girmişler yahu..

ytd.

syg,

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Originally Posted by fztoguz27

Dolar mevduat i maksimum 32 gün mu yapabiliyoruz ertesi ay yuksekten mi almis oluyoruz yani

SM-G935F cihazımdan hisse.net mobile app kullanarak gönderildi.

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Dolar mevduat i maksimum 32 gün mu yapabiliyoruz

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-->Hayır istediğiniz sürede yapabilirsiniz tabiki

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ertesi ay yuksekten mi almis oluyoruz yani

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-->Anlaşılamadı

şuan için tek çare IMF

bizim gibi düşük gelirli ülkeler için faizi sıfırlamışlar.
https://i.hizliresim.com/nlJ8VM.jpg

işbank 91 gün vade 18.25

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Originally Posted by Pythagoras

yapmayın hocam fener batmış gözüküyor.. bankaların hiçbiri bu durumda değil..

adamlar %49 dan faktoring e girmişler yahu..

ytd.

syg,

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Futbolla hiç alakam yoktur ama okurken gerildim
Enkaz devralmış adam resmen

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Originally Posted by must1955

işbank 91 gün vade 18.25

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miktar bayağı yüksek sanırım..
geçen forumda biri 13.50 verdiler yazıyordu..
bir de 400 bine 17.00 alan vardı..

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Originally Posted by Pythagoras

yapmayın hocam fener batmış gözüküyor.. bankaların hiçbiri bu durumda değil..

adamlar %49 dan faktoring e girmişler yahu..

ytd.

syg,

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Fener in borç miktarı için 400M avro demişler 621M avro çıkmış.Bankalardaki batık miktarı da böyle sürpriz yaparsa vay halimize.Dikkat çekmek istediğim nokta bu.

F3211 cihazımdan Tapatalk kullanılarak gönderildi

Enkaz devraldı ise neden ithalata devam ediyor?

Ayrıca eski yönetimi İbra etmiş mi?

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Originally Posted by yuji

Futbolla hiç alakam yoktur ama okurken gerildim
Enkaz devralmış adam resmen

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Arkadaşlar uzun vadede Dolara yakınsarmı Tl ne dersiniz

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Originally Posted by Trade Shark

şuan için tek çare IMF

bizim gibi düşük gelirli ülkeler için faizi sıfırlamışlar.
https://i.hizliresim.com/nlJ8VM.jpg

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%0 Faiz bence çok iyi... Dünya ekonomik düzenini korumak için IMF den iyi bir hamle gelmiş. Keynesyen bakış açısıyla destekliyorum.

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Originally Posted by Enflasyon

Dudu abi senin "uzun vadede yakınsar" cümlen tüm mevduatçıların dillerine pelesenk oldu :) ben gibi mevduatçılara antideprasan niteliğinde bir cümle dolar uçtu orası ayrı ama uzun vadede yakınsar kesinlikle yakınsar yani mutluyum ben :) Allah senden razı olsun :yes:

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Takmayin kafanizi iste.. sakin olun... cok degil bir zaman sonra bugunler icin bosuna uzulmusum diyeceksiniz.
Ben de sizlerin yaslarinda su anda sizlerin dusundugu gibi dusunuyordum.
Degmez para pul icin uzulmeye.
TL de arayi kapatacak zamanla, yani yakinsayacak dolara veya digerlerinin artisina..cok bir fark kalmayacak aralarinda.
Sorun su ki sizler siralamayi tahmin etmeye calisiyorsunuz, yani daha fazla kazanmak istiyorsunuz..
Beceremeyince de kiziyor, hirslaniyorsunuz, oradan oraya kosturuyor ve bu sansinizi da yok ediyorsunuz.
Oysa herkes kafasina, karekterine yatan birisini bulsa, altinsa altin, dolarsa dolar, borsa ise borsa, TL mevduat ise mevduat cok rahat edecek, uzun vadede az cok herkesin kazandigi kadar kazanacak.
Sadece biraz zaman, biraz sabir lazim, hepsi bu.

Syg,

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Originally Posted by Enflasyon

Arkadaşlar uzun vadede Dolara yakınsarmı Tl ne dersiniz

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Gecer bile..
Sermaye ihtiyaci olan ulkeler mecbur faizi verecekler.. ama birden ama zamana yayilmis olarak..
Bir sekilde verecekler.
Syg

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Originally Posted by Dudu

Takmayin kafanizi iste.. sakin olun... cok degil bir zaman sonra bugunler icin bosuna uzulmusum diyeceksiniz.
Ben de sizlerin yaslarinda su anda sizlerin dusundugu gibi dusunuyordum.
Degmez para pul icin uzulmeye.
TL de arayi kapatacak zamanla, yani yakinsayacak dolara veya digerlerinin artisina..cok bir fark kalmayacak aralarinda.
Sorun su ki sizler siralamayi tahmin etmeye calisiyorsunuz, yani daha fazla kazanmak istiyorsunuz..
Beceremeyince de kiziyor, hirslaniyorsunuz, oradan oraya kosturuyor ve bu sansinizi da yok ediyorsunuz.
Oysa herkes kafasina, karekterine yatan birisini bulsa, altinsa altin, dolarsa dolar, borsa ise borsa, TL mevduat ise mevduat cok rahat edecek, uzun vadede az cok herkesin kazandigi kadar kazanacak.
Sadece biraz zaman, biraz sabir lazim, hepsi bu.

Syg,

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Dudu abi politikaya gir ben sana oy veririm insanlara umut aşılıyorsun :)

https://mobile.twitter.com/AtillaYes...80282692554752

Yapın mevduat inizi kafanızı rahat olsun.onla bunla ugrasmayin.

Burganbank sitesinde kredi notu bilgisi var, son değerlendirme 2018 Ocak'ta yapılmış görünüyor. Konuya hakim olanlar Turkiye'deki diğer bankalarla kıyaslama yapabilir mi?

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Originally Posted by elma

Burganbank sitesinde kredi notu bilgisi var, son değerlendirme 2018 Ocak'ta yapılmış görünüyor. Konuya hakim olanlar Turkiye'deki diğer bankalarla kıyaslama yapabilir mi?

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Fitch rating'in en son raporundaki banka notunu diğer bankalara paralel olarak BB- olarak görmüştüm.

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Originally Posted by trion

o kadarını ben bilmem kısa vadede birseylere guveniyorlar faiz artırmadılarına gore ...doların cıkıcagını biliyorlar dır tabi..aradım taradım bu haberi bulabildim..birde brisc ulkeri toplantısına ozel davetli olarak katılacak belki ordan birsey cıkarsa cıkar ...o 5 ulkenin turkiye ile ne gibi bir isi olabilirki niye ozel davetli olarak katılmasını istediler ..bilmiyorum fazla rahat geliyor bana adamlar .

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Murat Muratoğlu: Benden selam söyleyin Venezuela’ya! – Sözcü Gazetesi
https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2018/yazarl...m_medium=diger

Sabah sabah dakika 1 gol 1 , alternatifbank 32 gün üzerine 500 bin üzeri düz 20 teklif etti. kabul etmedim, ben zaten aylık faizi çeşitli operasyonlarla 30 lara getiriyorum. gecelik vov hesabı 20 yapın dedim.

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Originally Posted by memorex

Murat Muratoğlu: Benden selam söyleyin Venezuela’ya! – Sözcü Gazetesi
https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2018/yazarl...m_medium=diger

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çok acımasızca olmuş...

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Originally Posted by ressam

Sabah sabah dakika 1 gol 1 , alternatifbank 32 gün üzerine 500 bin üzeri düz 20 teklif etti. kabul etmedim, ben zaten aylık faizi çeşitli operasyonlarla 30 lara getiriyorum. gecelik vov hesabı 20 yapın dedim.

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Merhaba aylık faizi çeşitli operasyonlarla 30 lara nasıl getiriyorsunuz? Yani sormaya çalıştığım riski sabit tutup getiriyi nasıl yükseltiyorsunuz?

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Originally Posted by diproyal

Merhaba aylık faizi çeşitli operasyonlarla 30 lara nasıl getiriyorsunuz? Yani sormaya çalıştığım riski sabit tutup getiriyi nasıl yükseltiyorsunuz?

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riski sabit tutuyorum dememişki..

syg,

Burgan Odea oran varmı?

özel sektör tahvil bono alıp satabileceğimiz bir banka internet şubesi var mıdır?

Vakıfbank Özel 14 Ağustos'ta vadesi dolacak mevduata ek olarak,
14 Ağustos vade, 20 gün
4,75 put opsiyon yapıldı.
1,65 m. Net prim: 5.940 TL.

bu gerçek mi? önce zaytung haberi gibi geldi

Alıntı:

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Originally Posted by Trade Shark

şuan için tek çare IMF

bizim gibi düşük gelirli ülkeler için faizi sıfırlamışlar.
https://i.hizliresim.com/nlJ8VM.jpg

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Vakıf 5
Ing 5
Burgan 5
Icbc 4.90
Finans 4.75
Halk 4.50
Garanti 3.75
Akbank 3.75

950,000 dönüş haftaya olacak piyasa yoklaması.

Güncel oranlar nedir arkadaşlar

Nexus 6 cihazımdan hisse.net mobile app kullanarak gönderildi.

vakıf 500bin 19,50