ABD Enflasyonunun Analizi
-Inflation in services accelerated in November for the second month in a row, to an annualized rate of 5.8%, driven by housing, healthcare, and insurance. Services is where about 65% of consumer spending goes, and it continues to be the driver of inflation.
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But gasoline continued to plunge. Durable goods prices continued to drop. Food prices rose to a new record from already high levels.
-Core CPI was pushed down by the decline in durable goods, but pushed up by the jump in core services.
-The CPI for core services (without energy services) on a month-to-month basis rose 0.47% in November from October, or by 5.8% annualized (blue line).
The three-month moving average rose by 0.46%, or 5.7% annualized, the sharpest increase since April (red line).The acceleration of the three-month moving average in September, October, and November is very disconcerting.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...s-MOM_3mma.png
-Year-over-year, the core services CPI rose by a red-hot 5.5%, same as in the prior month,
despite the 30% collapse of the messed-up year-over-year health insurance CPI within it that we'll get to in a moment:
-The "Rent of primary residence" CPI further accelerated to +0.48% in October (+5.9% annualized) and has been in this range since March, except for the outlier July, when it had dropped out of that range.
The Rent CPI is based on actual rents that tenants actually paid. The survey follows the same large group of rental houses and apartments over time and tracks what tenants, who come and go, actually pay in these units.
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The "Owners' equivalent of rent" CPI rose by 0.50% in November from October, or 6.2% annualized, a hair higher than in March.
The three-month moving average rose by 0.49%, the highest since June, and there hasn't been any real improvement since May.
The OER index is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for, and is designed to estimate inflation of "shelter" as a service for homeowners.
-What both CPIs for housing costs tell us is that the rent CPIs have settled at month-to-month increases of around 0.5%, or about 6% annualized, which also roughly matches what the largest landlords have reported in their earnings calls that they're getting in rent increases. So about since March,
it seems rent increases have gotten stuck at a rate close to 6%, and that's very disconcerting.
Year-over-year, the Rent CPI increased by 6.9% . And the CPI for OER increased by 6.7%
-The chart shows the CPI Rent (blue, left scale) as index values, not percent change; and the ZORI in dollars (red, right scale). The left and right axes are set so that they both increase each by 50% from January 2017, with the ZORI up by 47% and the CPI Rent up by 35% since 2017:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...s-Index_-_.png
-Rent inflation vs. home-price inflation: The red line represents the CPI for Rent of Primary Residence (tracking actual rents). The purple line represents the Case-Shiller Home Price 20-Cities Composite Index. Both lines are index values set to 100 for January 2000:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...ousing-CPI.png
-The collapse of the health insurance CPI. November was the second month without the monthly push-down adjustments to the health insurance CPI, which started with the October CPI in 2022 and went through September 2023.
These odious health insurance adjustments had caused the health insurance CPI to collapse by nearly 4% month-to-month every month for 12 months through September, leading to the 37% year-over-year collapse by September. The problem arose because the pandemic healthcare distortions had blown up the model the BLS used to estimate health insurance costs, and the BLS was slow in changing the model. It has now tweaked the model. I discussed the old and new versions last month here: The Collapse of the Health Insurance CPI (How it Became Chickenshit).
Starting in October and continuing in November - and at least for the next four months - the health insurance CPI flipped the other way and jumped month-to-month by 1.1% for the second month in a row. Those two month-to-month increases reduced the year-over-year spike to +30.3% in November from +37.3% in September.
Here is the infamous chart of the Health Insurance CPI as index value, which back to where it had been in 2018, which is outrageously ridiculous. Now the index is reversing, and that little hook at the bottom represents the two months of 1.1% increases in a row:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...ndex_value.png
NOT:Sağlık sigortası fiyatlarındaki metodik hatalar ,%37 düşüş getirdi ve yıllık ABD enflasyonunu aşağıya çekti,şimdi metodik hesaplamada düzeltme yapıldığı için önümüzdeki aylarda tersine enflasyonu yukarı çekecek.
Inflation in services accelerated in November for the second month in a row, to an annualized rate of 5.8%, driven by housing, healthcare, and insurance. Services is where about 65% of consumer spending goes, and it continues to be the driver of inflation.
But gasoline continued to plunge. Durable goods prices (cars, electronics, furniture, etc.) continued to drop, though used car prices suddenly jumped again . Food prices rose to a new record from already high levels. So here we go.
Core CPI, a measure of underlying inflation that excludes the volatile movements of food and energy products, rose by 0.28% in November from October (red line), according to the Consumer Price Index data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI was pushed down by the decline in durable goods, but pushed up by the jump in core services.
The three-month moving average, which irons out the month-to-month ups and downs, also rose by 0.28%, the biggest increase since June (blue):
The Overall CPI inched up by 0.1% in November from October, driven down by the 6.0% month-to-month plunge in gasoline prices and the drop in durable goods. As you can see, this index jumps up and down a lot, driven by the often-massive movements of energy prices (red). The three-month average, rose by 0.18% (blue):
The year-over-year "Core" CPI rose by 4.0% year-over-year, same as in the prior month (red line).
The year-over-year overall CPI decelerated a hair to 3.1% (blue line), pushed down by the 8.9% year-over-year plunge in gasoline prices and by the 1.6% drop in durable goods, while the 5.5% increase in core services pushed in the opposite direction.
Core services got hotter, rents glow in the dark.
The CPI for core services (without energy services) on a month-to-month basis rose 0.47% in November from October, or by 5.8% annualized (blue line).
The three-month moving average rose by 0.46%, or 5.7% annualized, the sharpest increase since April (red line).
The acceleration of the three-month moving average in September, October, and November is very disconcerting:
Year-over-year, the core services CPI rose by a red-hot 5.5%, same as in the prior month, despite the 30% collapse of the messed-up year-over-year health insurance CPI within it that we'll get to in a moment:
The "Rent of primary residence" CPI further accelerated to +0.48% in October (+5.9% annualized) and has been in this range since March, except for the outlier July, when it had dropped out of that range.
The Rent CPI is based on actual rents that tenants actually paid. The survey follows the same large group of rental houses and apartments over time and tracks what tenants, who come and go, actually pay in these units.
The "Owners' equivalent of rent" CPI rose by 0.50% in November from October, or 6.2% annualized, a hair higher than in March.
The three-month moving average rose by 0.49%, the highest since June, and there hasn't been any real improvement since May.
The OER index is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for, and is designed to estimate inflation of "shelter" as a service for homeowners.
What both CPIs for housing costs tell us is that the big month-to-month rent spikes in 2022 through February 2023 are over, and that the rent CPIs have settled at month-to-month increases of around 0.5%, or about 6% annualized, which also roughly matches what the largest landlords have reported in their earnings calls that they're getting in rent increases. So about since March, it seems rent increases have gotten stuck at a rate close to 6%, and that's very disconcerting.
Year-over-year, the Rent CPI increased by 6.9% (red in the chart below). And the CPI for OER increased by 6.7% (green):
"Asking rents" The Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) and other private-sector rent indices track "asking rents" which are advertised rents of vacant units on the market. Because rentals don't turn over that much, the ZORI's spike in 2021 through mid-2022 never fully made it into the CPI indices because not many people actually ended up paying those asking rents.
This time of the year, the ZORI typically dips a little. In October it had dipped by 0.12% from the prior month, and in November it dipped by 0.23% to $1,982. The dips were smaller than a year earlier.
The chart shows the CPI Rent (blue, left scale) as index values, not percent change; and the ZORI in dollars (red, right scale). The left and right axes are set so that they both increase each by 50% from January 2017, with the ZORI up by 47% and the CPI Rent up by 35% since 2017:
Rent inflation vs. home-price inflation: The red line represents the CPI for Rent of Primary Residence (tracking actual rents). The purple line represents the Case-Shiller Home Price 20-Cities Composite Index. Both lines are index values set to 100 for January 2000:
The collapse of the health insurance CPI. November was the second month without the monthly push-down adjustments to the health insurance CPI, which started with the October CPI in 2022 and went through September 2023.
These odious health insurance adjustments had caused the health insurance CPI to collapse by nearly 4% month-to-month every month for 12 months through September, leading to the 37% year-over-year collapse by September. The problem arose because the pandemic healthcare distortions had blown up the model the BLS used to estimate health insurance costs, and the BLS was slow in changing the model. It has now tweaked the model. I discussed the old and new versions last month here: The Collapse of the Health Insurance CPI (How it Became Chickenshit).
Starting in October and continuing in November " and at least for the next four months " the health insurance CPI flipped the other way and jumped month-to-month by 1.1% for the second month in a row. Those two month-to-month increases reduced the year-over-year spike to +30.3% in November from +37.3% in September.
Here is the infamous chart of the Health Insurance CPI as index value, which back to where it had been in 2018, which is outrageously ridiculous. Now the index is reversing, and that little hook at the bottom represents the two months of 1.1% increases in a row:
Services CPI by category
The table is sorted by weight of each service category in the overall CPI. The CPI for medical care services is the third largest item, with a weight of 6.3% in overall CPI, and over 10% in the core services CPI. The year-over-year drop of 0.9% was caused by 30% year-over-year collapse of the health insurance CPI within it.
Also note the continued spike in motor vehicle insurance.
Major Services without Energy Weight in CPI MoM YoY
Services without Energy 62.7% 0.5% 5.5%
Owner's equivalent of rent 25.8% 0.5% 6.7%
Rent of primary residence 7.7% 0.5% 6.9%
Medical care services & insurance 6.3% 0.6% -0.9%
Food services (food away from home) 4.8% 0.4% 5.3%
Education and communication services 4.8% 0.1% 1.4%
Recreation services, admission, movies, concerts, sports events, club memberships 3.1% 0.1% 4.8%
Motor vehicle insurance 2.8% 1.0% 19.2%
Other personal services (dry-cleaning, haircuts, legal services') 1.5% 0.3% 6.1%
Motor vehicle maintenance & repair 1.1% 0.3% 8.5%
Water, sewer, trash collection services 1.1% 0.3% 5.4%
Video and audio services, cable, streaming 1.0% -0.2% 4.1%
Hotels, motels, etc. 0.9% -1.1% 0.3%
Pet services, including veterinary 0.6% -0.1% 6.4%
Airline fares 0.5% -0.4% -12.1%
Tenants' & Household insurance 0.4% 0.5% 3.4%
Car and truck rental 0.1% -2.2% -10.7%
Postage & delivery services 0.1% -0.6% 0.8%
New vehicles CPI has been roughly flat all year, after the 19% surge from April 2021 through March 2023. In November, it edged down by 0.1% month-to-month. Year-over-year, the index rose 1.3%.
-For many years before the pandemic, the new vehicle CPI was essentially flat with some ups and downs, despite increases of actual vehicle prices. This is the effect of "
hedonic quality adjustments" applied to the CPIs for new and used vehicles and also other products
The chart shows the price level as index value, not the percentage change
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...cles-index.png
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...2023-08-13.png
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"Hedonic Quality Adjustments" for New and Used Vehicles, Consumer Electronics, Many other Products in the CPI
Hedonic quality adjustments are made to the CPIs of many goods and services but have a particularly big impact on those with the latest and greatest always evolving technologies.
"Hedonic quality adjustments" play a big role in the difference between actual price increases of new and used vehicles and the increases in the Consumer Price Index for new and used vehicles. For many years up to the pandemic, the CPI for new vehicles remained roughly flat while prices of new and used vehicles surged.
The WOLF STREET F-150 XLT and Camry LE Price Index shows the MSRPs of both models going back to 1990. I use the base version of these models, with no add-ons and without destination and delivery charges, to show the price increases of the bestselling truck and the best-selling car in the US going back to 1990. And I compare that to the CPI for new vehicles.
This chart is a visual depiction of how hedonic quality adjustments keep the CPI down, while retail prices surge. F-150 XLT (red, left scale), Camry LE (purple, left scale), and the Consumer Price Index for New Vehicles (green, right scale).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the CPI, started applying hedonic quality adjustments with increasing aggressiveness in the late 1990s.
Not just to new and used vehicles, but also to consumer electronics, appliances, and lots of other manufactured consumer products, such as some clothing, plus some services, such as housing and internet access (which went from dialup to 10 gigabit broadband in 25 years).
Hedonic quality adjustments are not applied to food and certain other products and services ( the BLS list of product categories is here).
The logic is that these products have gotten a lot better over those years, for example, going from three-speed automatic transmissions to 10-speed computer-controlled transmissions. The hedonic quality adjustments remove the costs of these quality improvements from the CPI.
Price increases that consumers have to deal with consist of many factors, including:
Loss of the purchasing power of the dollar
The costs of quality improvements, for example going from a 3-speed automatic transmission to a 10-speed electronically controlled transmission, or going from a 1995 Motorola cellphone to a current-model iPhone.
Profit margins of the producer
Input costs, labor costs, etc.
But only the loss of purchasing power of the dollar (inflation, a monetary phenomenon) is what the Consumer Price Index attempts to show. The BLS does not want to measure the costs of quality improvements.
To measure that monetary phenomenon of inflation, the CPI attempts to track how many dollars you have to pay for the same product over time.
But the Motorola cellphone from 1995 is not the same product as the current iPhone. Dialup internet access in 1995 is not the same service as 10-gigabit broadband today.
To isolate the loss of purchasing power of the dollar from the costs of quality improvements, the BLS removes the estimated costs of those quality improvements and calls that removal process "hedonic quality adjustments."
This process has suppressed the CPI for new vehicles over the past 25 years, even as actual prices in dollars of new vehicles have soared.
This process also caused the CPI for consumer electronics products to decline nearly every year. The decline is further accelerated by the fact that consumer electronics have gotten cheaper over time, such as big-screen TVs and laptops, even as the performance and other quality measures improved.
Conceptually, it makes sense to remove the costs of quality improvements from the index that tracks the monetary phenomenon of inflation.
But even if hedonic quality adjustments are calculated properly, without a political agenda to distort CPI downward, it puts the consumer in a bind because at the lower 60% of the income scale, wages have barely kept up with the overall CPI, but have not nearly kept up with the price increases deemed to be due to quality improvements.
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The CPI for food at home " food bought at grocery stores and markets " rose by 0.2% month-to-month and by 2.9% year-over-year. Those increases come on top of already painfully high food prices that had spiked by 24% during the pandemic.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...home-index.png
Energy prices plunged, driven by the plunge in gasoline. Energy prices are linked to commodities which tend to jump up and down dramatically, which is why they're excluded from "core" inflation measures to see the underlying inflation.
CPI for Energy, by Category MoM YoY
Overall Energy CPI -2.3% -5.4%
Gasoline -6.0% -8.9%
Utility natural gas to home 2.8% -10.4%
Electricity service 1.4% 3.4%
Heating oil, propane, kerosene, firewood -2.2% -19.3%
Gasoline, which accounts for about half of the energy CPI, plunged by 6.0% month-to-month. Since the peak in June 2022, it has plunged by 31%.
Yazı uzun.Okumaya üşenenler için 2 cümleyle özetleyeyim.ABD'de maliyetlerdeki düşüşlerle bazı malların fiyatlarında bir gevşeme var ya da fiyat artışlarının hızı kesilmiş durumda ama maliyet enflasyonun baskısı azalırken ,güçlü tüketici harcamaları ile desteklenen hizmet enflasyonu olduğu yerde duruyor,hiç bir gevşeme yok,bu arada "hedonik fiyat ayarlamları" nedeniyle tüketiciler gerçekte enflasyonu daha yüksek hissettiği için ,bu hissiyat hizmet enflasyonuna da fiyatları artırma yönünde baskı yapıyor.
Sonuç olarak Fed güçlü tüketici harcamalarına dayanan talep enflasyonunu dengeleyecek sıkı para politikasını gevşetirse, önce hizmet enflasyonu sonra da manşet enflasyonunun kontrol dışına çıkma riski devam ediyor.
Alıntı yaparak yanıtla
Originally Posted by deniz43
ABD Enflasyonunun Analizi
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