Originally Posted by
enki
... doların sıkılaşmaya devam ettiği şu ortamda dolar çekebilmek için faizleri arttırma zorunluluğun var...
Merkez ne yapar, ne eder, hiç bir fikrim yok. Bakalım neler olacak?
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IMF'nin şu ünlü "koyun kırkma el kitabı"nın baş müellifi, Carmen Reinhert, Bloomberg'e verdiği bir mülakatta, faiz artırma konusundaki isteksizliği, bankacılık sistemi üzerindeki baskıyı azaltma gayretiyle açıklamıştı.
Kısaca, aşağı tükürsen sakal, yukarı tükürsen bıyık vaziyeti. Uzun şekli aşağıda!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rkey-contagion
"I don't think Turkey's only problem is the currency crisis. Turkey had a sustained boom in lending. Credit growth. Its private saving rate kept declining. Credit accessibility increased dramatically. The credit boom was fueled by capital flows. Booms in domestic borrowing often end in banking crises. I am deeply suspicious, because I've seen this before."
"Perhaps the reason an interest rate defense hasn't been pursued is because they're worried about banks. Thailand's interest rate defense was at best feeble. It was feeble because the central bank was already extending credit to a whole range of finance companies that had invested in real estate. Real estate peaked in 1996. And you had a big chunk of finance companies underwater. So in that context, if they raise interest rates, you'd exacerbate an existing bank problem. A central bank in those conditions is faced with a dilemma: Raise interest rates to defend the currency, which other things equal will hurt the banks, or you can let the exchange rate go and try to keep interest rates as stable as possible to avoid exacerbating a banking problem."
"My suspicion is Turkey already has a banking problem, and that's made the central bank more leery about a full-fledged interest rate defense."
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