...:::vobelıt:::...

[deniz43]

Fed kararı

July 28, 2021

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued July 28, 2021

[nosfecagri]

Sap yiyip saman s..tık dememiş mi İngilizce olarak ne dersiniz hocam?

Fed kararı

July 28, 2021

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued July 28, 2021

SM-N985F cihazımdan hisse.net mobile app kullanarak gönderildi.

[cevdet _060]

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[cevdet _060]

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Deniz Hocam yukarıdaki linkteki haberlerde Yılın ilk yarısında altın talebi %11 azalarak 1,833 ton oldu . Küresel altın talebi ikinci çeyrekte %1 azalarak 955 ton geriledi yazmış.
Yine Dünya Altın Konseyi (WGC) tarafında açıklanana verilere göre, Türkiye'de 2. çeyrek dönemde takı altın talebi geçen yılın aynı dönemine oranla 2 kattan fazla arttı .Aynı dönemde yatırım için altın talebinde ise keskin bir düşüş yaşandı. Yatırım için altın talebi çeyrek bazda %91 , yıllık bazda %79 düşerek 4,1 tona geldi. Rakam 2008 4. çeyrekten bu yana en düşük seviye olarak kayıtlara geçti yazmış sizce altının ve doların gerilemesini neye bağlıyorsunuz?

[deniz43]

Merkez bankası haftalık istatistikleri(16 Temmuz haftası)

-Merkez bankası -altın hariç- brüt döviz rezervleri 297 milyon dolar arttı.

-Yabancılar 62.0 milyon doları hisse senedi sattılar, 56.5 milyon dolar hazine tahvili aldılar.

-Döviz tevdiat hesapları parite ve altın ons fiyatı arındırılmış olarak ;

-Döviz tevdiat hesapları 1727 milyon dolar arttı(gerçek kişiler 732 milyon dolar artış,şirketler 995 milyon dolar artış)

[deniz43]

Thursday July 29 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
03:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL 0.9% 0.4% 0.5%
03:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUL 3.8% 2.3% 3.3%

Almanya'da Temmuz ayı enflasyonu %0.9 ile piyasa beklentilerinin çok üzerinde gelerek yıllık enflasyonu %2.3'ten %3.8'e zıplattı.Daha da vahimi Almanya'nın yılbaşından beri -baz etkisi olmayan- 7 aylık enflasyonu %4.34,yıllıklandırılmış enflasyonu ise,%7.56.Küresel piyasaların gözü ABD enflasyonunun üzerinde iken,sürpriz bir biçimde Almanya'nın yılı ABD'nin de üzerinde rekor bir enflasyon oranıyla kapatması şaşırtıcı olmayacak.Şaşırtıcı olan ise,Almanya'da ABD de olduğu gibi kuvvetli bir tüketici talebi ve devasa mali teşvikler olmadığı halde enflasyonun ABD ile yarışır seviyede bu kadar yüksek olabilmesi.Birinci dünya savaşı sonrası yaşadığı acı hiperenflasyon tecrübesi nedeniyle genetik olarak yüksek enflasyona çok duyarlı bir ülke olan Almanya'nın merkez bankası Bundesbank'ın bundan sonraki Avrupa Merkez Bankası toplantılarında sesini yükseltmeye başlayacak mı,ben de merak ediyorum.

[deniz43]

Thursday July 29 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
03:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 6.4% 8.5%

Bugün ABD'den küresel piyasalar için önemli ikinci çeyrek gsyih büyüme verisi gelecek.Piyasa beklentisi ABD ekonomisinin ikinci çeyrekte reel olarak %8.5 büyüdüğü şeklinde.Cari fiyatlarla nominal büyüme yüksek olsa da,benim tahminim , rakamlar gsyih deflatörü ile enflasyondan arındırıldıktan sonra reel büyümenin %7.2-%7.3'te kalacağı şeklinde.

Thursday July 29 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
03:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 6.5% 6.4% 8.5%

Piyasa analistlerinin ABD ikinci çeyrek gsyih büyüme tahmini %8.5 iken,benim tahminim %7.2-%7.3 idi.Ama benim tahminim bile yüksek kaldı.J.P Morgan,Goldman Sachs ,Merrill Lynch,Morgan Stanley gibi yatırım bankaları ve aracı kurumlarda,bol sıfırlı maaş çekleri ile çalışan ABD'nin en iyi ekonomi fakültelerinden doktoralı araştırma departmanları uzmanlarının hesaplamalarında bu denli sapma olması şaşırtıcı...

Not:İkinci çeyrekte ABD ekonomisi cari dolar ile nominal olarak %13.0 ya da 684.4 milyar dolar büyüdü ve ABD ekonomisinin yıllık gsyih'sı 22.720 trilyon dolara yükseldi.İlk çeyrekte bu nominal büyüme oranı %10.9 veya 560.6 milyar dolar idi.

[deniz43]

Thursday July 29 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
03:30 PM
US
PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q2 6.4% 3.8% ®
03:30 PM
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q2 6.1% 2.7% ® 5.9%

İkinci çeyrekte Fed'in önem verdiği PCE fiyat endeksinde %6.4'lük,çekirdekte %6.1'lik rekor yükseliş olmuş.