Dowes

[Egeli]

Dün olaydı keşke


hisse.net kullanarak iPhone aracılığıyla gönderildi

[inti]

Dün olaydı keşke


hisse.net kullanarak iPhone aracılığıyla gönderildi

Yönü dolar endeksi ve cds belirleyecek.

[JonDowes]

Commerzbank - Ulrich Leuchtmann

This TRY crisis is a prime example of markets role. In the sense that they provide unbending signals - if one leaves them alone. Politics - in particular populist politics - tend to ignore budget restrictions: government budget restrictions (in the case of the new government in Italy) and restrictions of the balance of payments (in case of the Turkish President). This ignorance is supported by the fact that these restrictions have long term effects and that marginally a lot is possible without breaking them. But only if later corrections are possible and likely. Otherwise the financial markets will be the first to remind politicians of the budget restrictions (when a return to sustainable politics is still possible). President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had ruined the prospect of a return to sustainable politics - visible for anyone in his infamous Bloomberg interview of 14th May. And by doing so he turned "normal" depreciation into a currency crisis.

...in my view a lot depends on Erdogan approach. 300bp rate hikes are important. However, what is also important is Erdogan's announcement that Turkish monetary policy would "abide by the global governance principles on monetary policy" also in the future. That can mean two things: (1) He respects - contrary to what he announced in the Bloomberg interview - the independence of the central bank, or (2) he is abandoning his ludicrous idea that rate cuts might dampen inflation. What is decisive for the future of the lira medium term is: is Erdogan credible? Or is his back-paddling merely an election campaign tactic because he fears that a currency crisis and current account crisis before the elections could cost him his victory? I tend to the sceptical interpretation. Also because Erdogan left an escape route for himself: "we will not let global governance principles finish off our country"�. This is not what someone sounds like who over the past ten days has had a road-toDamascus experience and who has realised that these "governance principles'� are designed to ensure that his country is not "finishing off"� itself.

[inti]

That honor goes to Turkey’s firms, who have almost $340 billion in foreign currency denominated debt ($185 billion is owed to domestic creditors, and $150 to external creditors—$110 in loans and $40 in trade credit [source]). The quality of their hedges will be tested: I never have been convinced all foreign currency debt is really backed by export receipts.

@jondowes Happy CCS times !

So how do the banks transform dollars into lira?

A couple of tricks:

They swap a lot of dollars into lira. Fair enough. But the tenor of the swaps is fairly short (see box III.2.1 of the central banks financial stability report . The lira can run even if the dollars raised by selling longer-dated bonds cannot.)

And the central bank lets the banks meet their reserve requirement in lira by posting foreign exchange or gold at the central bank (so gold deposits in effect fund lira lending, indirectly). This means the banks have a decent buffer of foreign exchange—which they can draw on if their creditors start to withdraw funding. One secret source of strength of the system is that the banks themselves have a fairly large stockpile of foreign exchange deposits that matches their large short-term external debts.***

https://www.cfr.org/blog/turkey-coul...Z21haWwuY29tS0

[sermo]

Sayın JonDowes;

Yurt dışından bir aracı kurumdan dolar ile özel tahvil bonosu alacağım.

Aşağıda linkte verilen yeni kanuna göre dolarları eft ile aracı kuruma göndermem bir sorun yaratır mı?


https://tr.sputniknews.com/turkiye/2...URL_shortening

[inti]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-markets-lira-graphic/graphic-markets-see-more-turkish-lira-losses-and-more-cenbank-moves-to-support-it-idUSKCN1IQ24K

[JonDowes]

Sayın JonDowes;

Yurt dışından bir aracı kurumdan dolar ile özel tahvil bonosu alacağım.

Aşağıda linkte verilen yeni kanuna göre dolarları eft ile aracı kuruma göndermem bir sorun yaratır mı?


https://tr.sputniknews.com/turkiye/2...URL_shortening

Bilmiyorum, ortada daha yazılı bir kanun yok.

[sermo]

Bilmiyorum, ortada daha yazılı bir kanun yok.

Sayın JonDowes,

Kanun Resmi Gazatede yayınlandı. Linkteki Madde 1 kanunla ilgili.


http://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskile...0180525-18.htm