BUSHIDO

[B]Essence Of The Rescue Plan[/B]

To stimulate lending, the bailout plan will attempt to recapitalize banks. The method of recapitalization is best described as robbing Taxpayer Pete to pay Wall Street Paul. In essence, money is taken from the poor (via taxes, printing, and weakening of the dollar) and given to the wealthy so the wealthy supposedly will have enough money to lend back (at interest) to those who have just been robbed.

All this talk about Strategy, Implementation, Recruitment, Procurement, operations, compliance, and other details masks the essence of the plan. And even though [B]"A program as large and complex as this would normally take months -- or even years -- to establish[/B]", the Secretary for Financial Stability is going to ramrod something through as quickly as possible.

Unfortunately, no matter what seat of the pants strategies they come up with, I can guarantee in advance that the unforeseen consequences of whatever decisions they make, simply will not be any good. Besides, it is axiomatic that plans to rob Peter to pay Paul, can never really work in the first place, regardless of how much time is spent crafting them.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
[url]http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com[/url]

[B]Makalenin tamamini okumak icin:[/B]
[url]http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/essence-of-rescue-plan.html[/url]

Paul Krugman'e Nobel Ekonomi odulu kazandirdigi soylenen makale::)

[CENTER][B]The Role of Geography in Development[/B]
Paul Krugman
April 1998[/CENTER]
[url]http://www.worldbank.org/html/rad/abcde/krugman.pdf[/url]

[B]Video: Five Minute Briefing on Derivatives[/B]

[url]http://larouchepac.com/news/2008/10/13/video-five-minute-briefing-derivatives.html[/url]

Faber'in son gorusleri...
[url]http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=tvtoday&clipSRC=http%3A%2F%2Fvideo-static.clipsyndicate.com%2Fcs-video%2Fvol2%2F2008%2F10%2F20%2F58%2F351%2F427d18a1-2dc2-48c6-a80f-a732a83977e0.flv[/url]

[B]Analysis![/B]

IF YOU have been paying attention to the news, to financial experts, to economists—basically to anyone paying attention to financial markets—then you may have heard that there have been some recent problems with interbank lending. In the wake of the Lehman Brothers failure, a number of money market funds broke the buck, and the commercial paper market began to show serious signs of stress. We faced the risk, the experts said, of a breakdown in the markets that helped regular, non-financial companies operate. Had we done nothing, to paraphrase Ben Bernanke, we might have woken up one day to find ourselves without an economy.

Or so they would have you believe, says Alex Tabarrok! For some time now, he has been pushing the argument that we may face recession, but that the financial crisis never threatened the real economy, and so the big government bail-outs were unnecessary. And now he has proof. Three economists from the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis have produced a working paper purporting to debunk four myths about the financial crisis. Those myths are:

[B]1. Bank lending to non-financial corporations and individuals has declined sharply.
2. Interbank lending is essentially nonexistent.
3. Commercial paper issuance by non-financial corporations has declined sharply and rates have risen to unprecedented levels.
4. Banks play a large role in channeling funds from savers to borrowers. [/B]
The authors of the paper next provide a damning analysis. In the best tradition of lazy undergraduates everywhere, they plot lines on graphs and draw wild conclusions. And on the basis of these conclusions, Mr Tabarrok writes his post, and credulous bloggers begin analogising the bail-out to the Bush administration's bogus claims about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.

There are a few problems with all of this. First of all, some of the conclusions drawn are simply false. While rates on the highest quality non-financial commercial paper have behaved fairly well in recent weeks, rates for lower quality stuff have soared. The spread between the two, actually, is one of Calculated Risk's credit market indicators.

The failure to distinguish between the two types of paper is indicative of the broader, unwarranted credulity of the authors. For instance, many of the series they present actually show an unusual spike in bank lending during the crisis period. Are we to understand that for most banks, conditions actually improved, suddenly, sharply, and atypically while the rest of the financial world went to hell? Well, we might do that. Or we might suspect that the increase in bank lending was itself a product of tight credit conditions elsewhere—that borrowers were falling back onto lines of credit they normally wouldn't use thanks to the severity of lending conditions.

And of course, there is the inconvenient matter that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury went out and did all that stuff they did in order to prevent a massive breakdown in lending to the real economy. Because, you'll remember, we faced a Monday morning without an economy if this wasn't done. Now this does allow sceptics to say, "Well, how do we know things would have collapsed"? We don't, of course, but that doesn't change the fact that current lending takes into account massive government intervention to make sure that lending continued. The latter therefore can't be used to argue that the former wasn't necessary.

Maybe at some point we'll see some careful research that suggests that the threat the financial crisis posed to the real economy was drastically oversold. This, I'm afraid, isn't it.

[url]http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2008/10/analysis.cfm[/url]

Greenspan der ki:[B]Neden oldu, tam olarak anliyamadim[/B]!:beurk::grrr:

Inaniyormusunuz?:he:

[YOUTUBE]R5lZPWNFizQ[/YOUTUBE]

[B]Wall Street's Shadow Market[/B][url]http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/26/60minutes/main4546199.shtml[/url]

[B]Derivatives[/B]
[url]http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/26/60minutes/main4546199.shtml[/url]

[B]Credit Default Swaps[/B]
[url]http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/26/60minutes/main4546199.shtml[/url]

[B]Bank Lending
The Mother Of Credit Crunches[/B]


What does a global credit crunch look like when it comes down to raw numbers? [COLOR="Red"]A 3% quarterly decline in international banking activity[/COLOR]. It doesn't sound like much, but it represents $1.1 trillion--and that was just a snapshot taken at the end of June, before the Lehman Bros. collapse worsened the crisis in interbank lending.

[B]It is also three times bigger than the largest contractions of the past three decades--as long as such records have been kept. [/B]After the demise of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, international banking activity fell by 1.2% in the fourth quarter of that year. After the dot-com bubble burst, the contraction was 1%, or $125 billion--chump change compared with today's banking volumes.

The numbers come from the provisional international banking statistics for the second quarter of this year, released Thursday by the Bank for International Settlements, the Basel, Switzerland-based organization that acts as a lender for central banks. BIS says most of the decline was accounted for by "short-term interbank credits in U.S. dollars," i.e., banks not lending to each other overnight--the logjam...we have heard so much about being at the heart of the credit crunch.

Note that is only from the second quarter; we'll see what the third quarter statistics look like. Here is the BIS link. Note that second quarter lending was as robust as it was in part because of continued lending from Europe to Eastern Europe and also to Iceland. That's more reason to worry, not less.

[url]http://www.forbes.com/business/2008/10/23/credit-crisis-banking-biz-wall-cx_pm_1023notes.html[/url]

[B]Tianjin 2008 - The Global Economic Outlook[/B]

[url]http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=6iJvUw3UkVs&feature=channel[/url]

Selamlar sayın Bushido şöyle baktımda Warren buffetin alma zamanı linkini göremedim biraz umutta vermek gerekli :)

Sn Whitelight, piyasalar uzerinde olumlu etkide bulunabilecek birkac kisiden birisi olan Buffet'in son soylemlerinin gercek goruslerini iletmeme ihtimali oldugunu dusundugumden cok dikkate almadim. Bilincli bir sekilde bir plan pararalelinde verilmis demecler gibi geldi! Bir soyledigi diger soyledigini bir sekilde desteklemiyor. Alma zamani diyor ama daha sonra kriz derinleserek bilmem su tarihe kadar surecek gibi celiskili demecler veriyor. O nedenle dahil etmedim.

Bu asamada umitli olabilecek bir durum malesef yok...:cry:

Selamlar.

Sn Bushido Carlos slimin 30 ekimde yaptığı raportajı yolluyorum.Uzun lafın kısası daha aşağı gidecez diyor :)
[url]http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=910528797&play=1[/url]

Birkac gun soluklanmak icin su yuzune cikiyor gibiyiz ... Bu sureci umarim iyi degerlendirebiliriz!:)

[B]Citigroup, Under Siege, Holds Talks With U.S.[/B]

[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/22/business/22citi.html?_r=1&ref=business[/url]

[B]Bankruptcy Is Option to GM Board [/B]

[url]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122731593872949815.html?mod=testMod[/url]

[B]Job Losses Surge as U.S. Downturn Accelerates[/B]

[url]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122731266659249473.html?mod=testMod[/url]

[B]And You Thought 1931 Was Bad for the Market [/B]

[url]http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/22/business/22charts.html?ref=business[/url]

[B]Jim Rogers calls most big U.S. banks "bankrupt"[/B]
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/InvestmentOutlook09/idUSTRE4BA5CO20081211[/url]