Alıntı yaparak yanıtlahayırlı bir topik olacağı inancındayım...bilgi paylaşımı güzeldir.
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Baltık Dry Endeks nedir?
Baltic Dry Index' her gün Londra'da yerleşik 'Baltic Exchange' adı ile tanınan kurum tarafından yayınlanan ekonomik bir veridir. 26 ayrı deniz nakliye hattını temel alıp oluşan fiyatların ortalamasının alındığı bir endekstir.
Baltık endeksi diğerlerin ayrı kılan nedir?
Birçok bileşeni olması nedeniyle neredeyse tüm sektörlerden etkilenmekte ve bu etkinin sonucunda değer kazanmakta veya kaybetmektedir.
Bu bileşenler nelerdir?
Herhalde bu sorunun cevabı ciddi bir tez konusu olacaktır.Ben takip edebildiklerimi kısaca yazarsam global piyasalara neden öncü olduğunu anlayacaksınız.
1.Petrol
Bu navlun piyasaları etkileyen en önemli faktördür.Deniz taşımacılığında yakıt maliyetleri yaklaşık olarak gemi büyüklüklerine göre yüzde 35-40 lık bir pay almaktadır.Yakıt ve navlun piyasalarında yaşanan tarihi ralliler incelendiğinde petrolün 150 usd yi gördüğü tarihlerde Bifex endekste 11600 ler ile zirve yapmıştı.Bu korelasyon büyük çöküşten sonra biraz ayrışmakla birlikte 34-72 usd 670-4200 lü çıkışlarda tekrardan birlikte hareket etmiştir.
Nymex de önümüzdeki dönemdeki beklentim 65-75 usd arasında bir süre hareket etmesidir. Her ne kadar Opec üyelerinin 90 usd lik beklentileri Hurricane mevsiminin beklenenden daha sakin geçmesi ve Amerikan stoklarının ciddi artış göstermesi, speküle edecek fazla bir olay bulamamaları nedeniyle bence boş kalmıştır.Aslında eur-dolar paritesinin ciddi yardımı olmasa 75 usd lerde zor gözüküyordu ama önümüzdeki dönemde bir dönüşün yaşanacağı düşünüyorum.Yeni bir dip olmasa da biraz yukarılarda 40 usd larda stabil olacaktır.Ancak kış mevsiminin etkilerini de gözardı edemeyiz.Yakıtta çok uzun vadeli öngörüler ciddi yanıltabilir.Stoklar,Arz,Mevsimsel etkiler vb hep gözönünde bulundurulmalıdır.
2.Liman sıkışıklıkları
Gemilerin limanlarda yaşamış olduğu beklemeler,taşıma yapacak gemi sayısını azaltmakta ve azalan gemi sayısı nedeniyle armatörün biraz daha nazlanıp daha yüksek navlunlar almasını sağlayacaktır.
3.Liman masrafları Euro-Dolar paritesi
Liman masrafları her ülkenin kendi belirlediği çok fazla uluslararası piyasaları önemsemeyen milli stratejilerin önemli olduğu bir kalemdir.Ukrayna'nın gelirlerini artırabilmek için son üç yılda liman masraflarında yapmış olduğu yüzde 130 luk artış Karadeniz çıkışlı taşımalarda navlun fiyatlarını da yükseltmiştir.Toplam masrafların liman ve seferlere göre yüzde 20 ile yüzde 40 arasında olduğu düşünüldüğünde bunun önemi daha fazla anlaşılacaktır.Euro dolar paritesinin burada etkisi ise navlunlarınızı usd olarak alırsınız ancak Avrupa başlangıç/bitiş seferlerde liman masraflarını euro ödersiniz bu da size ekstra bir yük getirir ve bu yükü siz navlunlara yansıtırsınız.
4.Running cost(İşletme maliyetleri-Personel giderleri,Sigorta(Hull and machinery ve Pandi), Tamir masrafları vb)
5.Commodity price (Etkisi sınırlı olsada siz 300 usd sattığınız mal için 50 usd navlun verirsiniz bu sizi üzmez ama aynı malı 100 usd satarken 50 usd vermezsiniz.Ya o malı satmaz ya da navlunu düşürmenin yollarına bakarsınız)
Aslında yukarıdakiler ilk aklıma gelenler ve en önemli olanları...
Bu kadar reel kriteri içeren bir endeksi asla gözardı etmeyiniz evet mevsimsel olarak dünya piyasalarından ayrışsa da gerçekte tüm ekonomilerde saklanan gerçekleri önceden haber vermesi nedeniyle ciddi bir önemi vardır.
hayırlı bir topik olacağı inancındayım...bilgi paylaşımı güzeldir.
Sn.Ulunay,
Aşağıdaki endexlerin açık isimlerini verir misiniz?.Bunların birbiriyle ilişkisi var mı?.Örnek BDI diğerlerinin bir bileşkesi olarak görülebilir mi?.Bunları analizli takip edebileceğimiz önerebileceğiniz adresler var mı?.Katkılarınızdan dolayı teşekkür ederim.
Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 11/09/2009
BDI 2468 (DOWN 24)
BCI 3539 (DOWN 53)
BPI 2550 (DOWN 59)
BSI 1917 (UP 23)
BHSI 916 (UP 4)
Last published BDTI 478 (UP 7)
BCTI 469 (UP 10)
Biraz da stock ve shipment bilgileri...
Australia exported 12.8m tons of steam coal in July, up 13.4% year-on-year. Steam coal exports to China slowed 13.7% to 2.1m tons in July compared to June but exports to China are still very strong compared to 2008. Exports of Australian coking coal to China in July were up 3% month-on-month to 3.7m tons. Any suggestion of a Chinese slowdown in coking coal imports is for now just talk.
Steam coal exports to Australia's traditional customers in Japan were up 18% month-on-month while exports to South Korea were down 20%. Coking coal exports to Japan were down 2% compared to June while exports to South Korea were down 7%.
Total steam coal exports in the first 7 months of this year were 81.8m tons, up 16.4% compared to the same period last year. Coking coal exports during the same period were however down 11% despite the stronger export figures in the past few months.
Iron ore shipments from Port Hedland in August reached the highest level so far this year with 14.2m tons of iron ore being exported, up 2% month-on-month according to port authorities. Shipments to China dropped 11.5% compared to July to 9.8m tons but deliveries to South Korea almost tripled from the previous month. This is because South Korea's newcomer to blast furnace steelmaking, Hyundai Steel, has begun importing iron ore prior to commissioning its new plant according to Steel Business Briefing. Shipments to Japan fell slightly in August to 1.6m tons from 1.7m tons in July.
Iron ore exports from Australia's largest iron ore port, Port Hedland, are running well ahead of last year's 129.6m tons. Exports from January to August are up 16% compared to the same period in 2008. Total iron ore exports from Australia during this year's first seven month were 200.1m tons according to customs data, up 9.5% from the same period last year. Despite stronger exports have congestion been kept at the same level as last year, roughly 4-5 days on average.
A coal mine explosion in China yesterday killed 35 miners and prompted the shutdown of 157 coal mines with approximately 60m tons per year of combined capacity in the city of Pingdingshan in the Henan province.
The mine where the explosion occurred had a production capacity of 150,000 tons per year and was one of the "small mines" targeted in China's long-running campaign to shut and consolidate the mining industry.
Small mines (<300ktpa) accounted for about 31% of China's total coal production in the first half of this year. Many smaller mines, like the one in Pingdingshan, were re-activated earlier this year when prices improved but this mine was undergoing an overhaul and hadn't been allowed by local authorities to resume production. After the mine accident in Shanxi in February when 74 people were killed the Chinese government intensified the checks on smaller mines and cracked down on mines that produce without proper licensing.
The impact on China's coal supply is limited given the size of Henan's output (about 7% of China's total production) but further accidents could step up the closure of smaller mines and support domestic prices and imports.
China's total coal output in August rose by 14.7% year-on-year to 260.7m tons with electricity consumption up 9.3% during the same period.
Iron ore stockpiles at China's major ports continue to increase. Till the close of last week stockpiles increased by 890,000 tons to 73.04m tons according to Mysteel. Brazilian ore stock increased by 270,000 tons to 20.49m tons and Australian ore stockpiles rose by 450,000 tons to 24.2m tons while Indian ore stock declined by 200,000 tons to 15.18m tons. Stockpiles have increased for seven weeks in a row and have now reached a new all-time high.
Trader steel inventories in China increased for the eight consecutive week by 360,000 tons, up 3.3% week-on-week to 11.30m tons. Inventories of flats (HRC, plates etc) increased by 2.0% while longs (rebar etc) increased by 4.6%.
Congestion at Chinese iron ore ports remain largely the same this week as last week. There are now 64 vessels (whereof 33 Capes) waiting to discharge with average delays at 5 days.
Brazil exported 26.6m tons of iron ore in August, up 16% compared to July this year (and up 1% year-on-year) according to newly released port data. Exports to China were 15.9m tons in August, up 20% from a month earlier.
Brazil exported 166.5m tons in January to August, down 14% compared to the same period last year. Exports to China were 111.5m tons during this period, constituting 67.2% of total exports. Last year's iron ore exports to China in the first eight months were 70.3m tons, constituting 36% of Brazilian iron ore exports.
Exports to Europe reached 19.5m tons or 11.7% of total in January to August this year with 5.3m tons being exported in August, up 66% from July when 3.2m tons were shipped to Europe. It is the third consecutive months of positive growth to Europe.
Shipments to Europe are still at very low levels year-on-year but the trend indicates a slight improvement among European steel mills. However, they still remain cautious on the demand outlook, with most citing an end to destocking, rather than rebounding end-user demand, as the driver for higher blast furnace production
hayırlı olsun.....bu konuyla ilgilenmeye başlamıştım...böyle bir topiğinde açılması iyi oldu....
harika bir topic... kutlarım...
Haftabaşı yakıt piyasaları kısa özet...
We end this weeks trading with a familiar story of floundering crude prices in the $65-$75/bbl range. Since March of 2009, US light sweet crude prices have been pegged to the equity market. After a hot week for investors on Wall Street, the sell off began and energy speculators followed suit to start counting their money before the weekend. Again, demand fundamentals for oil are still weak, but continue to be pushed up by a perceived economic recovery. Bunkers were mostly steady in the primary ports, and hopefully will come down more to start next week.
11 September 2009
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FUTURES PRICES
OCT WTI $69.29 /BBL DOWN $ 2.65 /BBL
OCT BRENT $67.69 /BBL DOWN $ 2.22 /BBL
WATER BRN US GULF 3% $66.45 /BBL UP $ 0.20 /BBL
Baltic Endeks bugünde stabil seyrine devam ediyor...
Baltic Exchange Daily Fixture/Index List 14/09/2009
BDI 2450 (DOWN 18)-Baltic Dry Endeks
BCI 3494 (DOWN 45)-Baltic Cap Endeks
BPI 2520 (DOWN 30)-Baltic Panamax Endeks
BSI 1933 (UP 16)-Baltic Supramax Endeks
BHSI 920 (UP 4)-Baltic Handy Size Endeks
Last published BDTI 487 (UP 9) BCTI 476 (UP 7)
TIMECHARTER
'Peruvian Express' 2007 82655 dwt dely aps EC South America 20/30 Sept trip redel UK $21000 daily + $600000 bb - Cargill
'Bison' 2005 76600 dwt dely Surabaya ppt trip via Indonesia redel Taiwan $20000 daily - cnr
'Lady Maria Luisa' Giuseppe Bottiglieri relet 2007 76500 dwt dely Hong Kong 19/21 Sept trip via Indonesia redel Hong Kong $18550 daily - U Ming
'Maritime Lijiang' 2006 76302 dwt dely Hualian 12/15 Sept trip via US Gulf redel China $19000 daily - cnr
'Maganari' 2001 75961 dwt dely Wilhelmshaven 15/20 Sept trip via Murmansk redel Skaw-Cape Passero $27000 daily - Norden
'Star of Nippon' 2004 75611 dwt - <report of 11/09, as of Friday vessel was still open>
'Ever Mighty' 1996 75265 dwt dely Taiwan 14/16 Sept trip via Indonesia redel Taiwan $14750 daily - TaHo - <recent>
'Orsolina Bottliglieri' 2001 75200 dwt dely Qingdao 27/30 Sept trip via US Gulf redel China $18500 daily - STX Pan Ocean - <recent>
'Epanorthosis' 2004 73630 dwt dely Ghent 13/18 Sept trip via N.France & Egypt redel Cape Passerpo $27000 daily - EBC
'Powerful' 1994 70083 dwt - <fixture reported 11/09 has failed>
'Dubai Ambassador' 2004 56062 dwt dely Sriracha spot trip via Indonesia redel India $15500 daily - cnr - <recent>
'Alara K' 2001 52413 dwt dely Port Said spot trip via Hamburg redel India $31000 daily - Agroship
'United' 1993 52245 dwt dely Port Kelang mid September trip via Indonesia redel China approx $12000 daily - cnr - <corrects report 11/09>
'Jin Hui' 2000 50777 dwt dely Chittagong spot trip via Richards Bay redel India approx $14500 daily - cnr
'Attractive' 1985 41525 dwt dely Port Said 19/23 September trip via east Med with bulk Cement redel Port Harcourt $17500 daily - NOM (UK) Ltd
'Lion' 1986 40836 dwt dely Greece 15/18 Sept trip via Continent redel east Mediterranean $16000 daily - cnr
'Goldmar' 1984 39697 dwt dely Otranto 18/20 Sept 3/5 months trading redel Atlantic $15000 daily - Bunge
'Pacific Glory' 1999 20412 dwt dely Chiba prompt trip via Nopac redel India $9500 daily - JK Shipping - <recent>
PERIOD
'Teh May' 2004 175086 dwt dely retro China 1/5 Sept 4/6 months trading redel worldwide $35000 daily - Swiss Marine - <fixed last week>
'Mineral Antwerpen' 2003 172150 dwt dely Far East mid Oct 6/8 months trading redel worldwide $32000 daily - Great Pacific Navigation
'Genco Maximus' newbuilding 170000 dwt dely ex yard Sungdong 19/21 Sept 4/6 months trading redel worldwide $31750 daily - Cargill
'Bison' 2005 76600 dwt dely Taiwan 25 Sept/5 Oct 11/13 months trading redel worldwide $18500 daily - cnr
ORE
'Mineral Beijing' 2004 170000/10 Tubarao/Qingdao 7/15 Oct $27.75 fio scale/30000sc - Noble - <fixed about a week ago>
'Swiss Marine TBN' 155000/10 Narvik/Ijmuiden 25 Sept/4 Oct $6.75 fio 7 days sc - Corus - <recent>
'Taskent' 1999 75000/10 Richards Bay/Mundra end Sept $14.75 fio scale/20000sc - Libra
'Nikomarin' 2007 70000/10 Ubu/Hansaport 17/26 Sept $21.50 fio 4 days sc - Salzgitter
COAL
'Eternal Salute' 2006 75000/10 Baltimore/Rotterdam 29 Sept/8 Oct $16.50 fio 30000sc/30000sc - Cobelfret
'Torm Antwerp' Danzas relet 65000/5 Norfolk/Swinoujscie 29 Sept/5 Oct $18.75 fio 30000sc/20000sc - US Steel Corporation
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