Dev'ayna Masalları

[D R A G O N]

sn.hocam, son bilançoya göre değerlendirme yapacak olursanız, hissenin adil değeri ne olmalı sizce?

AFYON Çimento bilançosu çok hoşuma gitti. Full malda olmasam, iyi bir zamanlama ile kesinlikle giriş yapardım. Bilançolar sonrası bir güncelleme yaparsam portföyde, fiyatı da makul olması karşılığında, AFYON eklemeyi planlıyorum.

[deva-i dert]

sn.hocam, son bilançoya göre değerlendirme yapacak olursanız, hissenin adil değeri ne olmalı sizce?

Adil değer hesaplaması oldukça subjektif bir hesaplama, içsel değer hesaplaması da öyle. İNA ile farklı değerler çıkar, FD/FAVÖK çarpanını baz alsan farklı, F/K çarpanını baz alsan farklı. Graham'a göre hesaplasan, Buffet'a göre hesaplasan farklı. Bunun için net ve objektif cevap vermek de imkansıza yakın. Ama ben bu işlerde basit düşünmeyi tercih ediyorum ve geçmiş çarpanlarına ve sektör ağırlıklı ortalama çarpanlarına bakıyorum ve bu ikisinin ortalaması olarak AFYON için 16 f/k civarı bir fiyatlama değerinin ortalama makul bir değer olarak alınabileceğini düşünüyorum. Buna göre bakkal hesabı bile yapıp ve şöyle düşünebiliriz:

Bundan sonraki 3. ve 4. çeyrek net kârları da aynı bu çeyrek gibi gelecek. Ve buna göre hesap yapsan tablo şöyle olur:

109M (1Ç)+ 143M (2Ç)+ 143M (3Ç)+ 143M (4Ç) = 538 Milyon TL Prospektif Yıllık Net Kâr

Piyasanın da ortalama 16 F/K ile fiyatlayacağını varsaysan, 538 Milyon TL X 16 = 8.608 Milyon TL Piyasa Değeri yapar.
Mevcut Piyasa Değeri ne? 4.692 Milyon TL.
Bu durumda artış potansiyeli ne ? 8.608 / 4.692 = 1,83 (yuvarlak) katına çıkma potansiyeli demektir.
Bu durumda da 11,73 x 1,83 = 21,46 TL sene sonu benim asgari hedef fiyatım olur.

Şimdi burada şu rezervleri koyalım:

1. Bundan sonraki çeyrekler farklı gelecektir. Net Kâr bu çeyrekten az da çok da gelebilir. Bizim hesaplamamız kalan 2 çeyreğin bu çeyrekle aynı gelmesinin varsayımına dayalı, yani prospektif bir yaklaşım.

2. Piyasanın nasıl fiyatlayacağını bilmiyoruz. Piyasa 12 f/k ile de 25 f/k ile de fiyatlayabilir 2024 başını. Bizim 16 f/k'yı baz almamız tamamen ortalama bir değerdir ve piyasanın keyfine uyup uymayacağını bilemeyiz.

Sadede gelirsek, benim için sene sonu AFYON için minimum fiyat beklentim 21,46 TL seviyesidir. Az olur, çok olur; bu gelecek kârların durumuna ve piyasanın neyi nasıl fiyatlayacağına bağlı. Teknik olarak ise fibo 261,8 seviyesini izlerim, o da an itibariyle 24,10 TL civarına tekabül eder. Yani 21,46-24,10 TL arası fiyatlamayı AFYON için ben makul fiyatlama görürüm Ocak ayı ortalarına kadar. Piyasa coştukça coşar, her şeyi yüksek fiyatlarsa başka bir senaryo çıkar, piyasada moralleri bozacak şeyler çıkarsa üst üste başka bir senaryo çıkar ortaya. Bir şeyin 'eder'i şudur demek abesle iştigaldir. İyi zamanlarda her şey iyi fiyatlanır, kötü zamanlarda kötü.

Adil değer ya da içsel değer hesaplamaları an itibariyle olması gereken fiyatın tespit edilmeye çalışılmasıdır, benim yaklaşımım ise Ocak civarı ortalama fiyat beklentisinin ne olabileceği ile ilgilidir, kısmen defansiftir ve de aynı kapıya çıkmaz.

Tüm bunlar benim 'SUBJEKTİF HESAPLAMALARIM'dır ve kimseye hedef fiyat koyma ya da al-sat-tut tavsiyesi içermez.

[deva-i dert]

Daha kompleks içsel değer hesaplama yöntemlerim de var, ama iş kompleksleştikçe daha doğru tahmin yapıyorsun ya da piyasanın yaklaşımını daha doğru tahmin edebiliyorsun anlamına gelmiyor kesinlikle. Piyasa o kadar kompleks düşünmüyor, içsel değer filan da hesaplamıyor, genelde herkes muadillerinin durumuna ve kendi tarihsel ortalamalarına bakıyor en fazla. Çok kasmaya gerek yok yani. Şirket zaten iyi bilançolar açıklamaya devam ettikçe, geleceğin daha iyi olacağı beklentisi ile coşku ve fiyatlama artar, tersi olursa da düşer.

[D R A G O N]

Detaylı cevabınız için çok teşekkür ederim

[deva-i dert]

Eğer deprem bölgesinde bu kadar konut yapılacaksa, ülke genelinde kentsel dönüşüm hızlandırılacaksa, teorik olarak çimento sektörünün önümüzdeki birkaç yılda, en azından iç pazarda revaçta kalabileceğini öngörmek çok da zor değil zaten. Deprem sonrası zaten, o dönem itibariyle, en sert ve fahiş fiyatlananlar da çimentolardı, hatırlarsanız. Tamamen bu beklentiye paralel spekülatif bir hareketti o dönem itibariyle, ancak reelde de durum farklı olmayacaktır. Önemli olan hangi şirketin bundan en iyi istifade edebileceğini tespit etmek olsa gerek.

[deva-i dert]

http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/up...100Baggers.pdf

Yukarıda linkini verdiğim kitap Chrispher Mayer'ın 100 Baggers adlı kitabının bedava pdf linki. İngilizce okuyup anlayabilen arkadaşlar için hızlı büyüme hisselerinin hangi kriterler kullanılarak bulunabileceğine dair pratik ve tecrübi bilgiler veriyor. Bu kriterlere uyan her hissenin aynı sonucu vereceği garanti edilemese de bunlardan 15-20 adetinin portföyde bulunmasının uzun vadede aralarında tökezleyenler olsa da portföyünüzü 'Roketsan'a çevirme ihtimalinin olduğunu iddia ediyor. Kitap büyüme hisseleri odaklı yatırımcıların oldukça rağbet ettiği ve oldukça basit anlatımı olanlardan.

İddialar bana değil, müellifine aittir. İlgilenen arkadaşlar okur ve ikna olursa bu yöntemlerle şirket avına çıkabilir. Olmazsa başka yöntemlerle yoluna devam eder.

Not: Kitabı okumaya üşenenler için de Youtube'da The Swedish Investor adlı bir zat kendi tarzı ve kendi örnekleriyle görsel olarak özetini yapmış. İsteyenler onu da ziyaret edebilir:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvSeEVuhmwY

Onu izleyip not almaktan üşenenler için de transkriptini de buraya koyacağım. Daha da ne yapılmalı bilemiyorum.

[palmet]

Eğer deprem bölgesinde bu kadar konut yapılacaksa, ülke genelinde kentsel dönüşüm hızlandırılacaksa, teorik olarak çimento sektörünün önümüzdeki birkaç yılda, en azından iç pazarda revaçta kalabileceğini öngörmek çok da zor değil zaten. Deprem sonrası zaten, o dönem itibariyle, en sert ve fahiş fiyatlananlar da çimentolardı, hatırlarsanız. Tamamen bu beklentiye paralel spekülatif bir hareketti o dönem itibariyle, ancak reelde de durum farklı olmayacaktır. Önemli olan hangi şirketin bundan en iyi istifade edebileceğini tespit etmek olsa gerek.

Oyakc bu kriterlere uygun

[deva-i dert]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvSeEVuhmwY

Bu da youtube'daki videonun seçim kriterlerinin anlatıldığı kısmının transkripti:


Takeaway Number One: Buy Puppies

First things first... You must look for companies that are able, I mean basically from a mathematical standpoint, to become 100 baggers. Large companies are not necessarily bad investments but if you are looking for hundred baggers these should not be your priority. If you look at Microsoft or Apple for instance they already have a market cap of around a trillion dollars, which means that you must be quite creative to imagine that either one of them will grow a hundred times from here and would one of them achieve that they would be roughly five times larger than the US economy is today. Instead concentrate your research on smaller companies, the puppies, that can grow say 10 to 20 times and still be regarded as small The good thing is that you don't have to find say Apple while the founders are still working from their garage, or Starbucks with only one store selling coffee beans. Even many years later there were still opportunities to hop on the wagon and enjoy hefty returns in these companies. There are approximately 4,000 domestic companies listed on the U.S. Stock exchanges today among which, approximately 30% are small puppies, so-called micro caps. This is a vast area to explore and, somewhere in this pile is the next Apple or Microsoft With that said, you should perhaps not look at the smallest companies either, with unproven products and no sales. In the study that gave rise to this book, the 365 companies that later experienced increases over 10,000 percent had median sales of 175 million dollars. Christopher Mayer suggests that you should draw the "puppy-line" somewhere around a billion dollars, but avoid the puppies who aren't even born yet.

Takeaway Number 2: The Twin Engines

Something that the hundred baggers of the last 50 years have had in common, is growth - in all its dimensions. Christopher Mayer suggests that you should invest in companies that can enjoy both a strong growth in sales, but in valuation multiples as well. Growing sales combined with, for example, growing the price to earnings multiple is something he refers to as the "twin engines". Let's start by having a look at the first engine: sales growth.

The sales growth is essential in order to grow a company's valuation hundredfold. If the growing sales also finds its way down to the bottom line, and increases the net earnings, that is extra beneficial as it will most likely increase the valuation multiples quicker. That is not a necessity though Just take Amazon as an example. It has had a tremendous sales growth, but the actual earnings ... Well, they have lagged behind. What you should be looking for are companies with a disruptive product service or business model where the company is reinvesting the earnings in the business to become even more competitive in the long term. So first engine: sales growth. The second engine is the "multiple growth" or "multiple expansion". Given that the multiples of the company aren't too expensive from the beginning, high growth is usually rewarded with higher valuation multiples. This is the twin engines at work. Let's consider the arithmetic.

As an example, we'll use a company that currently has a price to earnings multiple of 15 and sales of about 200 million dollars. If it can increase its sales by a hundred percent, the stock price will increase by a hundred percent as well, given that the multiples and the profit margin remains the same. Two hundred percent and the price will increase by two hundred percent. But what if we split that? So that the company grows a hundred percent in sales and a hundred percent in valuation? When the two endings are working together, they strengthen each other and the end result is not just a 200% increase but a 300% increase in the stock.On the opposite side of the spectrum are stocks with very high valuations. For those, one of the engines will work against you and the company will need to achieve very high growth rates in sales to compensate for it. So, search for companies that grow at a high pace. But try not to pay too much for them so that you can enjoy the twin engines.

Takeaway Number Thee: Owner-Operators

According to Christopher Mayer: Ultimately, it's the management alone which is the 100x alchemist. And it is to those who have mastered the art of evaluating the alchemist that the stock market rewards with gold. This means that when it comes to investing, you should make sure that the operators of the company, that is their board of directors, the CEO and so forth, have the right incentives for making the best decisions from the perspective of shareholders. If these operators own large parts of the company, they'll loose money if the company performs poorly and gain money if the company performs well. This type of situation is what you must look for as an investor. Let's take Jeff Bezos as an example. He started Amazon when he was 30. He's now 55,
continues to run Amazon and still owns about 12% of the company. You can be sure that he won't make some short-term decisions in order to reach some "quarterly sales quota". He will, to the best of his abilities, make long-term decisions that, by extension, also will be the best for long-term shareholders. If the plane that is Amazon crashes, the pilot that is Jeff Bezos will crash with it. Just as it ought to be. For more on how to find great managers, please see my summary of The essays of Warren Buffett.

Takeaway Number Four: The Coffee Can Cortfolio

The coffee can portfolio is a method dating back to when people hid their most valuable possessions in a coffee can and put it under the mattress. The method on how to invest in a hundred baggers is basically the same - pick the best stocks you can find and then put them in the coffee can! The average hundred bagger required 26 years of holding before reaching its 100x status. Did I hear someone say passive income? Christopher Mayer makes the similarity between an investor and a fish. A fish only eats a bait that moves and if the bait doesn't move, well, the fish doesn't care about it. Same thing often goes with investors. Stocks that don't move are often sold due to lack of action. Even though the fundamentals of the company moves steadily in the right direction! Also, stocks that underperform for a short period of time are often sold, again, even if the underlying business moves in the right direction! Take Monster Beverages as an example. On quite a few occasions, the stock has lost 20% or more in value within a month and on one occasion as much as 40% There were many situations in which it was probably tempting to sell the stock. But gee, would that have been a mistake as it became a hundred bagger in just 10 years! The best investors often say that the greatest enemy to superior returns are ourselves and our human traits. Greed fear, etc. However, different time periods of an investments lifetime are affected differently by these damaging traits. You are often most rational when you don't own the stock. The coffee can portfolio uses this as an advantage. After your due diligence is done and you have made a purchase, just put the stock in the coffee can and leave it be. This is a way to protect you from yourself. You can view this as a boredom arbitrage. As Warren Buffet puts it: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient". So buy right then sit tight. This is how to make money in hundred baggers.


Takeaway Number Five: Ignore the Macro Analyst

When you have invested in a potential 100-bagger, or are looking for new opportunities, you should ignore whatever the FED is doing, who's the president at the moment, and what's currently going on in China. Put blindfolders on and focus your strategy on analyzing and finding hundred baggars. Because, these jewels they continue their journeys, even during recessions. The management of these companies seldom care about the current interest rates or Trump's latest tweet. They only care about the great products and services that they sell, and so should you. As quarterly earnings are presented also during times of recession, companies that make headway and can show high demand of their product are rewarded by the stock market, even though it might be the autumn of the year 2008. When you have spent time and effort on analyzing these stocks with a great future potential you don't want to miss out of the gains because a macro analyst might suggest so. Let's take a quick example from the financial crisis. The retail company Dollar Tree, which just so happens to be a hundred bagger, grew its revenues from 3.9 billion dollars in 2007 to 4.2 billion dollars in 2008. That's a seven percent increase even in a recession The stock was rewarded by increasing from about 7.5 dollars per share to 14 dollars per share during that time - almost a 100 percent increase! While the S&P 500 during the same period lost about 40 percent of its value. This merely works as an example of why it may be stupid to care about the macro hassle when you have successfully found a company that should be put in your coffee can portfolio. Timing the market is hard. Finding hundred baggers is no easy task either. Don't try to do the combination. So: blindfolders on. Ignore president Trump and Xi Jinping, and focus on the task at hand: finding those jewels. That's it on how to invest in stocks that return 100 to 1.

Let's have a recap, before you enter the stock market jungle for your hunt. Focus on companies that still have a long road to travel but make sure that they are currently on the right path. Look for companies that can continue their growth for years to come and where there's still room for higher valuation of multiples: the twin engines. Only board the plane if the operators are on board too. Avoid emotional errors by putting your stocks in the coffee can. Turn off the news, stop checking the total value of your portfolio every day, smash that like button and focus on finding the future hundred baggers, no matter the market sentiment. Big thanks to my friend Richard Dykes for helping me in making this video. Bye for now!