Ben daha kötü en alttan eşleşme bekliyorum ama gerçekleşmedi, bunda Viop30 a gelen son dakika alışları ve eşleştirme seansında diğer bankalara gelen alışlar etkili oldu!
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Mantık sizi A noktasından B noktasına götürür. Hayal gücü ise her yere.
Ben daha kötü en alttan eşleşme bekliyorum ama gerçekleşmedi, bunda Viop30 a gelen son dakika alışları ve eşleştirme seansında diğer bankalara gelen alışlar etkili oldu!
Who Will Be Turkey’s Next Finance Minister? Doesn’t Matter
Analysis by Bobby Ghosh | Bloomberg
June 1, 2023 at 12:05 a.m. EDT
Who in their right mind would want to be Turkey’s finance minister? The country’s economy is bleeding from years of abuse at the hands of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and most analysts agree that any chance of healing the wounds has been lost with his reelection.
The scuttlebutt from Ankara is that former finance minister and deputy prime minister Mehmet Simsek is being lined up for the job as economic czar. But if he ****s Erdogan’s new cabinet, expected to be announced tomorrow, it will mark a triumph of hope over experience.
Investors shouldn’t make the same mistake. Nor should they put much stock in the president’s vague promise to appoint a team with “international credibility” to manage the nation’s finances. Until Erdogan explicitly abjures his absurd economic ideas — the ones that have helped turn Turkey from the darling of emerging-market investors to a basket case on a par with Venezuela and Argentina — any appointments he makes should be regarded as mere window dressing.
Simsek should know: He’s played that role before. In 2015, with investors growing nervous over Erdogan’s unorthodox economic ideas, the former Wall Street banker was appointed as deputy prime minister in an attempt to reassure markets. Simsek had been credited for maintaining fiscal discipline as finance minister between 2009 and 2015. His previous experience as a banker at UBS in Wall Street and Merrill Lynch in London was expected to count for a great deal with foreign investors.
But his role in the new cabinet was ill-defined, and within months his responsibilities had been trimmed. Many of the main levers of the economy were at the hands of those who followed Erdogan’s peculiar precepts on monetary and fiscal policy — principally, his notion that lowering interest rates is the way to fight inflation. The markets had by then recognized that Simsek was a decoy, which ultimately made him superfluous. When the offices of prime minister and deputy prime minister were abolished in 2018, the president didn’t care to find Simsek a new role in government. But after having sat demurely in the window, perhaps out of loyalty to his political master, Simsek had lost some of his credibility as an independent thinker.
That Erdogan is considering bringing him back is a sign he again sees Simsek as useful — but for what, exactly? The president remains committed to lowering interest rates, which he regards as “the mother and father of all evil.” While he has acknowledged that inflation, currently more than 40%, is causing pain to Turks, his prescription for that hasn’t changed. And many analysts fear he will take his reelection as an endorsement of his economic policies and an encouragement to keep flauting fiscal orthodoxy.
Nick Stadtmiller, head of product at Medley Global Advisors in New York, told Business News he expects “interest rates will likely stay low, inflation will stay high, sovereign credit spreads will widen, while the currency will probably only slide slowly thanks to intervention.”
So the return of Simsek to government will not, by itself, betoken real change. It will take much more to persuade the markets that he isn’t again being used to dress Erdogan’s window.
Analysts will look closely at other appointments — to the central bank, for instance — to judge Erdogan’s willingness to cede authority in the management of the economy. But even a new slate of managers with “international credibility” will not suffice: So long as their jobs are the gift of the presidency, the officials will be constrained by his whimsy and caprice.
The closest thing to a guarantee of independence would be an amendment of the constitution that loosens the president’s grip on the levers of the economy. But having vastly expanded his powers through a referendum in 2017, Erdogan has shown no inclination to give any up.
In the absence of such evidence, investors should put little stock in the identity of next finance minister as they size up Turkey’s prospects during Erdogan’s third decade at the helm.
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