Wednesday December 15 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
04:30 AM
CN
House Price Index YoY NOV 3.0% 3.4%
05:00 AM
CN
Industrial Production YoY NOV 3.8% 3.5% 3.6%
05:00 AM
CN
Retail Sales YoY NOV 3.9% 4.9% 4.6%
05:00 AM
CN
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY NOV 5.2% 6.1% 5.4%
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/15/chin...-expected.html
China's retail sales grow by 3.9% in November - slower than expected
Son düzenleme : deniz43; 15-12-2021 saat: 06:00.
Congress raises debt ceiling to avoid defaultOriginally Posted by deniz43
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/14/debt...ndroidappshare
House passes debt ceiling increase, sending it to Biden to avoid default hours before deadline
Senatodan sonra ABD Temsilciler Meclisi de borçlanma limitini 2.5 trilyon dolar yükselten yasa tasarısını onaylayarak yasalaştırdılar.Karar başkan Biden'ın onayıyla yürürlüğe girecek.
Wednesday December 15 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
04:30 PM
US
Retail Sales MoM NOV 0.3% 1.8% ® 0.8%
4:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM NOV 0.3% 1.8% ® 0.9%
04:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM NOV 0.2% 1.6% ®
04:30 PM
US
Retail Sales YoY NOV 18.2% 16.3%
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/...ts_current.pdf
Fed Kararı
December 15, 2021
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EST
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.
With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months but continue to be affected by COVID-19. Job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the Committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment. In light of inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market, the Committee decided to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $20 billion for Treasury securities and $10 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in January, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $40 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $20 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.
Implementation Note issued December 15, 2021
Fed projeksiyonları
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...bl20211215.pdf
Fed üyeleri gelecek yıl 3 faiz artırımı öngörmüş
Sadık Üye
deniz bey merhaba,
fed in bu kararı yarınki merkez bankası faiz kararlarına hangi yönde bir etkisi (azaltma-sabit-artırma) olması rasyonel bir beklenti olur?
saygılar
Fed'in kararını "şahin" bulmadım.Piyasa beklentilerine paralel şekilde, aylık varlık alımlarındaki azaltım hızı arttırılmış 30 milyar dolara çıkarılmış.Fed üyelerinin 0.25*3=%0.75 puan faiz artırımı ise %7'ye dayanmış enflasyon oranı için çok düşük.Bu durumda Fed'in mevcut politikasıyla ,gelecek yılın ilk yarısında ABD'de çift haneli enflasyon rakamlarını görmemiz muhtemel.
Fed'in bu kararı, bizim merkez bankasının faiz düşürme yönünde elini rahatlatacak bir karar.
Sadık Üye
Teşekkür ederim yorumlarınız için.
Şahsen ben de Fed kararlarını yumuşak buldum. Enflasyon oranlarına göre faiz artım vadeleri , adeti ve oranları düşük , bu çok bariz.
Enflasyon un 2022 ortasından sonra düşeceği öngörülüyor , buna göre bile olsa faizleri çok düşük kalacak.
Bizim merkez bankası buna göre büyük ihtimal indirime gitmesi lazım.
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