...:::vobelıt:::...

[deniz43]

T.S. ile 15:28 itibariyle;

ABD 10 yıllık tahvil:%1.671

ABD 30 yıllık tahvil:%2.425

Bugün 10 yıllıklarda %1.70'i görürmüyüz!...

18.40 itibariyle 10 ve 30 yıllıklar sırasıyla %1.685 ve %2.442

[effendy75]

18.40 itibariyle 10 ve 30 yıllıklar sırasıyla %1.685 ve %2.442

Hocam, 2 an meselesi.. yaz sonu ise 3,5 civarı overshoot beklerim..

[HATAKE]

Deniz bey piyasalara ısık tuttugunuz icin cok tesekkurler

[deniz43]

Deniz bey piyasalara ısık tuttugunuz icin cok tesekkurler

Nezaketiniz için teşekkür ederim.

[deniz43]

Bugün küresel piyasalarda bütün gözler ve kulaklar Fed toplantısında olacak.Fed'in ne söylediği kadar ,ne söylemediği de önemli olacak(Karar metninde getiri eğrisi kontrolu ve ay sonunda süresi sona erecek ek kaldıraç oranı( Supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)) imkanını ile ilgili bir ifade yoksa SLR'yi uzatmayacak,ve -şimdilik- getiri eğrisi kontrolu düşünmüyor manasına gelecek. Fed toplantısı için ne tahmin ediyorum:

-Fed üyelerinin projeksiyonlarında;3 ay önce yapılanlara göre,gsyih büyümesi ve enflasyon tahminlerini yükseltmesini,işsizlik oranı tahminlerini düşürmesini bekliyorum.İlk faiz arttırımı tahminlerini daha erken bir tarihe çekmelerini bekliyorum.(Fed başkanı Powell daha önce "en erken 2023 yılında" demiş,son konuşmasında "şartlar oluşunca" demişti,basın toplantısında yine "şartlar oluşunca" ifadesini kullanmasını bekliyorum.)

-SLR imkanının süresinin uzatılmasına ve getiri eğrisi kontrolu niyetine ilişkin bir ifade olmasını beklemiyorum.

-Hiç kimse gibi ben de Fed'den bir faiz arttırımı ve bilanço daraltması beklemiyorum ama ekonomi aşırı ısınmışken ve 1.9 trilyon dolarlık paket ile daha da ısınacakken ve Haziran ayı itibariyle aşı süreci tamamlanıp hayat normale dönecekken,artık bilanço genişletmesini durdurması gerekirken,bir durdurma kararı almasını beklemiyorum,aylık 120 milyar dolar varlık alımlarını azaltma yönünde bir karar alacaklarını ya da ne zaman azaltmaya başlayacakları yönünde bir tarih vermelerini de beklemiyorum.

Fed kararı

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Following a moderation in the pace of the recovery, indicators of economic activity and employment have turned up recently, although the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic remain weak. Inflation continues to run below 2 percent. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations. The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued March 17, 2021


Implementation Note issued March 17, 2021

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on March 17, 2021:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances at 0.10 percent, effective March 18, 2021.

As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:
"Effective March 18, 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 0 to 1/4 percent.
Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of Treasury securities by $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by $40 billion per month.
Increase holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS by additional amounts and purchase agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as needed to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities.
Conduct repurchase agreement operations to support effective policy implementation and the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.
Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 0.00 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $80 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS.
Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for purchases and reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."
In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 0.25 percent.
This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

More information regarding open market operations and reinvestments may be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website

**************************************************
Projeksiyonlar.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...bl20210317.pdf

Aralık projeksiyonuna göre,son projeksiyonda,2021 yılında:

-GSYİH büyümesi %4.2'den %6.5'a yükseltilmiş.

-İşsizlik oranı %5'den %4.5'a düşürülmüş.

-Çekirdek PCE enflasyonu %1.8'den %2.2'ye yükseltilmiş.

- PCE enflasyonu %1.8'den %2.4'ye yükseltilmiş

[tesus]

Büyük tiyatro sona erdi.Sonuç;her zamanki bayağılık 10 yıllıkları gündem yap ,korku pompala,borsaya şortçu,dövize ve altına longcu topla .Abuk ,subuk konuş lafı gevele ,bilinen şeyleri tekrarla ,topladığın yatırımcıları,sağduyulu düşününleri biç.

[effendy75]

FED sonrası DXY yükselişi bozuldu..DXY’nin yönünü kalıcı aşağı çevirmesi enflasyonu destekler..

Yani, her türlü mokoko.. 🙂

[effendy75]

FED sonrası DXY yükselişi bozuldu..DXY’nin yönünü kalıcı aşağı çevirmesi enflasyonu destekler..

Yani, her türlü mokoko.. 🙂

Bir başka enflasyonist gelişme biden-putin dalaşması.. petrol up.. hedef 90 dolar..