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Turkey’s Long-Unloved Debt Is Starting to Win Over Investors
2021-01-27 00:00:00.8 GMT
By Selcuk Gokoluk
(Bloomberg) -- Some of the biggest and best-performing
emerging-market bond investors are back buying Turkish debt.
The rise in appetite for Turkish debt comes after a period
of continuous unloading since September 2018, when foreigners
owned 20% of Turkish debt. That share shrank to an all-time low
of 3.3% in November, but has been climbing since then.
Pacific Investment Management Co., Amundi and UBS Asset
Management see the potential for a lucrative year ahead for
Turkish debt, betting that interest-rate increases will help
reduce inflation and slow credit growth, two key concerns for
bondholders.
That would be a U-turn from 2020, when lira
weakened for an eighth straight year and local bonds lost 13% as
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan backed loose monetary policy.
Investors are betting that Erdogan, though still in favor
of low rates, will nevertheless let his new economic management
team get on with their job. Central-bank Governor Naci Agbal,
who took the helm in November, pledged to follow a more orthodox
monetary approach, and hiked the policy rate twice last year to
curb inflation and stem the lira’s slide.
“We think now it is a good time to invest in Turkey,” said
Pramol Dhawan, Pimco’s Newport Beach-based head of emerging
markets, whose fund beat 96% of peers over the last five years.
“The policies we have seen were in the right direction, and as
long as Turkey follows through these policies, it can be a
beneficiary of the favorable external environment for emerging
markets.”
In a vote of confidence for the new economic team, foreign
investors added $3.1 billion worth of Turkish lira bonds to
their holdings since November. They were net buyers every week
between Agbal’s appointment and Jan. 8, with the weekly flows
hitting a 2017-peak on Dec. 18, according to the central bank
data.
The purchases raised the share of foreign holdings of
Turkish domestic debt to 4.4%. That’s still very low in global
terms: non-residents own 24% of Russian bonds, 30% in South
Africa and 48% in Mexico.
Amundi and UBS have also raised Turkey to “overweight” in
their emerging-market debt allocations. Vanguard Asset
Management, whose EM debt fund beat 99% of its peers, closed all
its short-lira positions after the second rate hike late last
year, said Nick Eisinger, the London-based co-head of emerging-
markets active fixed income.
“Turkey has started to do the right things recently,” said
Hakan Aksoy, Amundi’s London-based senior fund manager for
emerging-market sovereign bonds. “It has a beaten-up currency
and a very high carry. At a time when yields are negative
globally in many nations, the central bank is hiking interest
rates, promises reforms and this makes us excited about the
Turkish market.”
Turkey attracted record demand for its first Eurobond sale
of the year, raising $3.5 billion via a two-part offering of
dollar-denominated securities. Demand for the securities was
more than $15 billion, an all-time high for a Turkish issuance
in international capital markets, the country’s Treasury said in
a statement on Jan. 20.
Even so, some emerging-market investors want to see more
evidence of a turnaround.
More Consistency’
“We are not constructive yet,” said Gustavo Medeiros, the
London-based deputy head of research at Ashmore Group Plc. “So
much damage has been done in terms of central-bank credibility,
foreign investor confidence and valuation of the currency in
recent years. We need more consistency in monetary and fiscal
policy to regain confidence in the market.”
The biggest unknown for bondholders is how long Erdogan,
who fired two central-bank governors in the past two years, will
let the regulator keep interest rates high. He repeated his
opposition to high interest rates on two separate occasions this
month. That’s a risk nobody can predict, and investors should
rather look to the fundamentals, said Pimco’s Dhawan.
“If you pursue a more moderate growth, which is in line
with the economic realities of Turkey, then foreign investors
will come in,” he said.
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