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Fitch düþürdü - Notu BB'ye indirdi görünümü de negatife aldý
The rating committee discussed the following key issues:The economic policy agenda of the Turkish administration post elections, including President Erdogan’s views on interest rates, inflation and fiscal policy; the new minister of finance and key economic advisors; the outlook for structural reforms to address the current account and growth; central bank independence and the MPC’s policy reaction function. Macroeconomic outlook and risks: the outlook for GDP growth in 2018 and 2019, risk of a hard landing and medium-term growth potential.External finances: risk of an external financing crisis, outlook for the exchange rate and interest rates; gross and net FX reserves; likelihood of CBRT FX intervention; the extent of and vulnerabilities from FC exposures across sectors of the economy. Public finances: trends in expenditure, revenues and the budget deficit; key fiscal policy measures; the use of PPPs and risks related to contingent liabilities; the potential for fiscal stimulus ahead of local elections in March; the sensitivity of the public finances to an economic slowdown. Banking sector: the RWN recently assigned to Fitch-rated banks; trends in profitability, capital, liquidity and asset quality; access to and cost of funding on FC and TRY liabilities; the impact of TRY depreciation; outlook for and impact of corporate debt restructurings; regulatory forbearance; and role of state-owned banks. The potential for heterodox policy actions such as price or capital controls.Political and social risks, including the impact of the change to an executive presidency, the likelihood of a further erosion of standards of governance, the impact of the MHP on foreign policy and geo-political risks. The relative strength of the public and external finances and the notching between the LT FC and LC IDRs. Credit strengths and weaknesses, and rating peer comparisons. Potential rating actions, drivers, sensitivities and assumptions. The main opinions and conclusions of the committee are recorded in the RAC.
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