Abi 80'lerde yeni "CPI" (sepet) e gecmisler. Mutlulugu bulmuslar. Adamlar "biseyin fiyati cok artarsa, vatandas o seyi daha ucuz biseyle degisir. Dolayisiyla biz vatandasindin daha ucuza degistiyi seyi sepete ekler, pahali olani cikartiriz (yada oranlari degisiriz)" demisler. Su "enflasyon" hesaplama yontemine bak, otur kicinla gul afedersin))
Substitution adjustments
Old CPI assumed that people never substitute products if prices changed.
New CPI assumes people are capable of making this adjustment.
For example, let’s say a person usually buys 2 chocolate bars and 2 peanut butter bars, which all cost $1 each.
calculating rate of inflation
Then, a chocolate shortage! Chocolate rises in price to $4 per bar.
Old CPI would measure the old basket as $4, and the new basket as $10, for a 150% rate of inflation.
New CPI, on the other hand, would assume the person could substitute four peanut butter bars instead of the more expensive chocolate bars, and still only spend $4. But New CPI also recognizes that some people really, really like chocolate.
After some complex math, New CPI would probably decide that assigning an $8 cost to the basket is a good compromise, since a person who used to buy 2 chocolate bars and 2 peanut butter bars might be equally happy buying:
3 peanut butter bars and 1 chocolate bar
Or even 8 peanut butter bars
Some other mix.
In this case, New CPI would calculate a lower inflation rate of 100%, instead of 150%.
calculating inflation with substitutions from new cpi
That explanation got crazy wordy, but here’s the important take away. When the government calculates inflation these days, they assume we can substitute things that increase too much in price. In reality, this usually reduces the rate of inflation.
Is that a perfect system? I’ll leave that up for you to decide.
Yer İmleri