...:::vobelýt:::...

[deniz43]

Deniz bey, merhaba efendim. Þayet Merkezden durumun vehametini idrak ile ,eski söylemlerini terk ile 20 baz puan faiz artýrdýðýný muhal farz edelim. Bu durumda dolar 11 li seviyelere iner mi ? Þöyle söyleyeyim ; Merkezin 40 -50 -60 baz puan faiz artýrýmda bulunduðunu düþünelim . Belki de seçimler olmuþ yeni gelen iktidarýn bunu yaptýklarýný düþünelim. Ülkeye gelen dýþ paranýn gelmediðini de farz edelim. Buna göre reel kur endeksi yükselirse dolarda nereleri görebiliriz. Düþüncelerinizde böyle bir skala varmýdýr ? Þayet dolar 10 oldu faiz 40 diyelim. Bist banka endeksleri bu durumda ne olur. Karlýlýklarý veya öz sermayeleri erimesi dip yapar mý ? Konutta sert gerileme olur mu ? 2001 krizinde konut nasýl dip yapmýþtý. 130 m2 üst sekmen evimi o zaman 30 bin dolara almýþtým. Çok kiþinin kafasýnda ki sorular bunlar. Kýsaca nasýl bir fiatlamalar görülebilir ? Selamlar

Faiz 20 puan artsa da 60 puan artsa da döviz kurlarý düþmez.Neden düþmez,çünkü enflasyon yýllýk %143(ENAG).Sanayide iþçilik maliyeti en az %%40 artmýþ, Nisan ayýndan Nisan ayýna son 1 yýlda temel girdi elektriðin fiyatý %212,doðalgazýn fiyatý %638 artmýþ,mazotun artmasý ile nakliye masraflarý 3 haneli artmýþ,üretimde girdi olan sanayi metallerinin fiyatlarý yüksek oranda artmýþ,ve temel ihracat pazarýmýz avrupaya euro ile sattýðýmýz ürünlerin fiyatlarý euro/usd paritesinin de gerilemesinin katkýsýyla euronun fiyatýnýn neredeyse yýlbaþýndaki fiyatýnda olmasýyla TL karþýlýðý maliyetlerdeki astronomik artýþa raðmen fiyat olarak neredeyse hiç artmamýþ.Sektörden sektöre maliyetler deðiþir ama ihracatcý þimdi bile para kazanmýyor ama baðlayýcý kontratlar nedeniyle zararýna da olsa ihracata devam ediyor.Üzerine bir de döviz kurumda düþüþ beklemek rasyonel olmaz.

Ama faizlerde kaydadeðer bir yükseliþ olursa hem konut fiyatlarý reel olarak düþer,hem de bankalara ellerindeki sabit faizli tahvillerin deðer kaybetmesiyle ve sabit faizli tüketici kredileriyle zarar yazarlar.

[deniz43]

Fed politika faizini -beklendiði gibi -50 baz puan arttýrdý.

May 04, 2022

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued May 4, 2022


-Genel ekonomik faaliyet ilk çeyrekte yavaþlamýþ olsa da, hane halký harcamalarý ve iþletme sabit yatýrýmlarý güçlü kalmaya devam etti. Ýþ kazanýmlarý son aylarda güçlüydü ve iþsizlik oraný önemli ölçüde azaldý.
-Fed Haziran ayý baþýndan itibaren bilançosunu küçültmeye baþlayacak.

[SelvanBurhan]

Fed politika faizini -beklendiði gibi -50 baz puan arttýrdý.

May 04, 2022

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee decided to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in conjunction with this statement.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

Implementation Note issued May 4, 2022

Oldukça güvercin bir açýklama olmuþ. Bir çok riski analiz etmeye etkisini anlamaya çalýþýyoruz filan demiþler. Bence altýn ve petrol için pozitif gibi. Siz ne düþünüyorsunuz acaba?

[Kurt73]

endeksler, altýn vs emtialar TEPE lerde geziniyor olsa idi sanýrým daha þahin gelirdi açiklamalar.
piyasalarý da dikkate alarak yapýyorlar açýklamalarýný bence...

[deniz43]

Fed, ilk etapta bilanço azaltýmýna Hazine kaðýtlarýnda 30 milyar dolar, mortgage destekli menkul kýymetlerde 17.5 milyar dolar ile baþlayacak. Fed: Ýlk 3 ayýn ardýndan bilanço daraltmadan aylýk miktar Hazine kaðýtlarýndan 60 milyar dolara ve mortgage destekli menkul kýymetlerde 35 milyar dolara yükseltilecek.

Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation

The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on May 4, 2022:

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 0.9 percent, effective May 5, 2022.

As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:
"Effective May 5, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3/4 to 1 percent.
Conduct overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 1.0 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion; the aggregate operation limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 0.8 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in the calendar month of June that exceeds a monthly cap of $30 billion. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.
Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in the calendar month of June that exceeds a monthly cap of $17.5 billion.
Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.
Engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS transactions."
In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/2 percentage point increase in the primary credit rate to 1 percent, effective May 5, 2022. In taking this action, the Board approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.
This information will be updated as appropriate to reflect decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors regarding details of the Federal Reserve's operational tools and approach used to implement monetary policy.

More information regarding open market operations and reinvestments may be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website

[deniz43]

Oldukça güvercin bir açýklama olmuþ. Bir çok riski analiz etmeye etkisini anlamaya çalýþýyoruz filan demiþler. Bence altýn ve petrol için pozitif gibi. Siz ne düþünüyorsunuz acaba?

Karar metni ilk etap,biraz sonra Fed baþkaný Powell'ýn basýn toplantýsýný da da dinleyip birlikte yorumlamak daha doðru olur gibi.Ama ilk izlenim olarak bana da "güvercin" bir metin olarak gözüktü.

[SelvanBurhan]

Karar metni ilk etap,biraz sonra Fed baþkaný Powell'ýn basýn toplantýsýný da da dinleyip birlikte yorumlamak daha doðru olur gibi.Ama ilk izlenim olarak bana da "güvercin" bir metin olarak gözüktü.

FED in aksiyon planýný gördükten sonra ABD enflasyon tahminlerimi açýklayacaðým demiþtiniz sanýrým. Merakla bekliyorum. Herhalde Temmuz aðustos aylarýnda %10 larýn üzerinde TÜFE göreceðimiz kesin gibi.

[suheyl]

Hocam "minareyi çalan kýlýfýný hazýrlar" durumu oluyor gibi . Sovcomflot Rus devasa devlet gemi taþýma þirketi. Yaptýrýmlar dan sýyrýlmak için filosunun üçte ikisini satýyormuþ. Alýcýlar aðýrlýklý Çin menþeli þirketler. Yani yaptýrýmlarý aþacak tedbirler illaki bulunacaktýr. Taa ki evrile evrile yeni bir denge oluþana deðin. Öte yandan yaptýrýmlar çerçevesinde hiç bir Rus þirkete ve þahsa sigorta yapýlmýyor bildiðim kadarýyla. Anlamadýðým teknik bir konu ama dolaylý bir yol ile bir teminat devreye girecektir bir þekilde. Her kriz kendi içinde fýrsatýný yaratacaktýr diye düþünüyorum.