HALK Cafe - I

[pilavli]

Ben de birakip Aselsana kactin zannettim. Soracaktim bugun.

Evlendim bununla nereye bırakayım, aselsanla kaçamak yapacaktım onu da beceremedim

Aselsan'da günlük iş yapacaktım, bugün büyük dalgalanma olur aradan çorba parası çıkarırım diyordum ama olmadı sabah biraz düşük açtı pek bir marj olmadı, işlem hacmi müthişti ama kim tuttuysa aslanlar gibi tuttu hisseyi oynatmadı bir yere. Hissede bir ağa olmadan bu hacimle bu kadar hareketsiz duramazdı, ağa olmadan kontrolsüz piyasa olsaydı yani arz-talep kendiliğinden oluşsaydı güniçinde epey bir inip çıkardı, buna neredeyse eminim. Bu durumu görünce ben de beğenmedim girmedim. Sanırım bir süre tutacaklar düşüş beklentileri boşa çıksın diye. Sonrası ne olur bilmem. Ben bankalara devam..

[TRENDHOUND]

Evlendim bununla nereye bırakayım, aselsanla kaçamak yapacaktım onu da beceremedim

Aselsan'da günlük iş yapacaktım, bugün büyük dalgalanma olur aradan çorba parası çıkarırım diyordum ama olmadı sabah biraz düşük açtı pek bir marj olmadı, işlem hacmi müthişti ama kim tuttuysa aslanlar gibi tuttu hisseyi oynatmadı bir yere. Hissede bir ağa olmadan bu hacimle bu kadar hareketsiz duramazdı, ağa olmadan kontrolsüz piyasa olsaydı yani arz-talep kendiliğinden oluşsaydı güniçinde epey bir inip çıkardı, buna neredeyse eminim. Bu durumu görünce ben de beğenmedim girmedim. Sanırım bir süre tutacaklar düşüş beklentileri boşa çıksın diye. Sonrası ne olur bilmem. Ben bankalara devam..

Hisseye destek çıkma operasyonu için halka arzdan gelen 3 milyar tl nin %10'unu ayırmış Yönetim yani 300M tl. Pek büyük bir meblağ sayılmaz, kısa bir süreliğine ancak idare eder bu para, ondan sonra hisse gerçek yönünü bulur.

[pilavli]

Hisseye destek çıkma operasyonu için halka arzdan gelen 3 milyar tl nin %10'unu ayırmış Yönetim yani 300M tl. Pek büyük bir meblağ sayılmaz, kısa bir süreliğine ancak idare eder bu para, ondan sonra hisse gerçek yönünü bulur.

Ben bunu bilmiyordum, doğru yorumlamışım bugün olanı o halde.

7.10'u dün görmüş olan hissenin 6 tl leri görme yani en azından 6.99'a inme olasılığı nedir sence? 7.10'un altına 11 kuruşluk (% 1.5 luk) bir hareket yetiyor mu yetmiyor mu? Bu hisse için %1.5'luk bir hareket yapmak sadece bir kaç dakikasını alır, 9 aydır yaşıyoruz bunları. 6 tl lere inmesinin benim için bir önemi yok bunun da altını çizeyim zira hisse son derece spekülatif hareket ediyor.

Sn. TH evet biliyorum isterse nasıl inebileceğini, kimsenin gözünün yaşına bakmaz. Ayrıca yazdığınız gibi ha 6.x olmuş ha 7.x çok birşey farketmez bu saatte onun da farkındayım. Azıcık laf atayım diye yazmıştım.
Bu arada dün 7.10'dan alıp maliyet düşürdüm güzel oldu..

Herkese hissenin kısa vadeli grafiğine bakmasını öneririm 7.10'dan itibaren çok güzel bir trend oluşturmuş gidiyor, bunu bozmamasını dilerim. Birkaç gün devam ederse ikili dip de oluşmuş olur.
Her ne kadar fiyat teknik değil haber odaklı oluşuyorsa da teknik de güzel olsun zararı olmaz.

[666]

07 Jun 2018


Rating actions reflect deteriorating operating environment

London, 07 June 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded and placed on review for further downgrade the ratings of 17 banks and placed on review for downgrade the ratings of two finance companies. The downgrades reflect Moody's view that the operating environment in Turkey has deteriorated, with negative implications for the institutions' funding profiles.



The reviews will focus on the likelihood of (1) further deterioration of the operating environment and its impact on the banks' standalone credit strength, (2) changes in affiliate support for foreign-owned banks, and (3) weakening of government capacity to support, following Moody's review for downgrade of Turkey's Ba2 government bond rating, on 1 June 2018 (for further details please see https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_384169).



The full list of the affected ratings can be found at the end of this press release.



RATINGS RATIONALE



-- RATINGS DOWNGRADES



WEAKER OPERATING ENVIRONMENT



Moody's said that the operating environment in Turkey, particularly in terms of market funding, has deteriorated since its last rating action on Turkish banks in March 2018 (see https://www.moodys.com/research/--PR_380376).



These adverse developments are evidenced by the recent erosion in investor confidence, primarily reflecting mounting uncertainty regarding the future direction of macroeconomic policy. The cost of banks' foreign currency funding has widened significantly this year, following an increase of the benchmark 10-year government bond yield of roughly 300bps between January 2018 and late May (of which almost 200 bps since March). In addition, the Turkish lira has depreciated by around 24% against the US dollar in the same period this year (almost 20% since March). Furthermore, the roll-over ratio for banks' long-term external funding declined in March, compared to the whole of the first quarter of 2018. Constrained funding conditions are a key challenge for Turkish banks, given their high reliance on US dollar short term market funding, which stood at USD75 billion, or about half of their foreign currency market funding at March 2018.



Moody's has captured this deterioration in market funding by lowering the Macro Profile it assigns to Turkish banks to Weak, from Weak +, through a one-notch negative qualitative adjustment for Funding Conditions.

Details of these rating downgrades, and other associated rating actions, are further down in this Press Release.



-- REVIEWS FOR DOWNGRADE



The reviews for downgrade will focus on the following three drivers.



1) POTENTIAL FURTHER DETERIORATION OF THE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT



In addition to the deterioration in funding conditions captured by the lower Macro Profile, the sharp deterioration of the Turkish lira against the US dollar is expected to lead to (i) an increase in problem loans coming from the significant number of Turkish companies that have borrowed in US dollars and are not hedged, and (ii) reduced capital ratios, as lira depreciation increases assets and risk-weighted assets.



Additionally, on 30 May 2018 Moody's revised its forecasts for GDP growth to 2.5% in 2018 and 2% in 2019, against a credit-fuelled 7.4% in 2017; the rating agency has also increased its expectation for inflation to 16% (against 12.2% in May 2018), which will pressure these financial institutions' financial performance.



Overall, Moody's placed on review for downgrade the BCAs and adjusted BCAs for 17 banks, long-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings for 15 banks, senior unsecured debt and issuer ratings, where applicable, for ten banks, subordinated debt ratings for nine banks, long-term CR Assessments for 17 banks, long-term national scale ratings for seven banks, short-term national scale deposit rating for six banks, and corporate family ratings, issuer ratings and issuer national scale ratings for two finance companies (see below for further details).



The situation in Turkey remains subject to change and Moody's said that during the review period it will assess the severity of the deterioration in the operating environment, the extent to which this may deteriorate further, the impact this may have on the Turkish banks' creditworthiness and the Turkish government's policy responses to these challenges.



2) EVOLUTION OF AFFILIATE SUPPORT



Where foreign-owned Turkish bank ratings currently benefit from an uplift from affiliate support, Moody's will assess the extent to which the deterioration of operating conditions in Turkey may lead to a parent having a lower incentive to provide support to subsidiaries in the country, which would result in a reduction in uplift for the banks' deposit and debt ratings from affiliate support.



There are eight potentially affected banks: Alternatifbank A.S., Denizbank A.S., HSBC Bank A.S. (Turkey), ING Bank A.S. (Turkey), QNB Finansbank AS, Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S., and Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S.



3) WEAKENING OF GOVERNMENT CAPACITY TO SUPPORT



Moody's continues to incorporate one or two notches of government support into the ratings of seven government-owned and systemically important banks. These banks are: Akbank TAS, Export Credit Bank of Turkey A.S., T.C. Ziraat Bankasi, Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S., and Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO. The long-term deposits, where applicable, and debt ratings of these banks have been placed on review for downgrade, in line with the review for downgrade of the Ba2 sovereign rating. This reflects the potential weakening of the Turkish government's capacity to provide support to the country's banks in case of need, as evidenced by the review for downgrade currently in place on Turkey's Ba2 government bond rating.



The rating agency also notes that the sovereign rating action takes into account the government's limited foreign currency resources, with the Central Bank's net foreign currency reserves of USD26 billion. This could result in the country's authorities becoming more selective in providing support to the banking system in a stress scenario.



REVIEW FOR DOWNGRADE



All long-term ratings and assessments, including national scale ratings (NSRs), are on review for downgrade. The short-term national scale deposit ratings of Alternatifbank A.S., HSBC Bank A.S. (Turkey), ING Bank A.S. (Turkey), Odea Bank A.S., Turkyie Garanti Bankasi A.S., and Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S., are also on review for downgrade.



-- FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE/DOWNGRADE



Moody's considers that there is limited upward pressure on the affected ratings at present, as indicated by the reviews for downgrade. However, the confirmation of the Turkish government bond rating at Ba2, improving operating conditions and unchanged affiliate support assumptions could lead Moody's to confirm the affected bank and finance company ratings at current levels.



Conversely, Moody's could downgrade the ratings following a downgrade of Turkey's sovereign ratings and foreign currency deposit ceiling, lower affiliate support assumptions and/or a further deterioration of the affected financial institutions' standalone credit strength, driven by a continuation of the adverse trends in the operating environment or specific instances of worsening asset quality, losses, or reduced capitalisation and liquidity. These conditions could be reflected in a further lowering of the Weak Macro Profile Moody's assigns to Turkey.



DETAILS OF RATING DOWNGRADES AND ASSOCIATED RATING ACTIONS



The lower Macro Profile resulted in the following actions for the 17 rated Turkish banks:



- Standalone baseline credit assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA:



one-notch downgrade for the BCA and adjusted BCA of all 17 rated Turkish banks.



- Long-term local currency deposit rating:



11 downgraded by one notch and placed on review for further downgrade, and four placed on review for downgrade (two issuers, Export Credit Bank of Turkey A.S., and Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S., do not have deposit ratings but issuer ratings, see below). The downgrades reflect the downgrade of the banks' adjusted BCAs, while the four being placed on review for downgrade (Alternatifbank A.S., ING Bank A.S. (Turkey), QNB Finansbank AS, Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S.) reflect the uplift from affiliate support; these banks' adjusted BCAs are all ba2 (previously ba1), in line with Turkey's sovereign debt rating; prior to this action, their long-term local currency deposit ratings were constrained at Ba2, the same level of the sovereign debt rating.



- Foreign-currency deposit rating:



Four downgraded by one notch and placed on review for further downgrade (HSBC Bank A.S. (Turkey), Odea Bank A.S., Sekerbank T.A.S., Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S.), and 11 being placed on review for downgrade. The downgrades reflect the downgrade of the adjusted BCAs, while for those only being placed on review for downgrade this reflects the fact that the foreign currency deposit ratings were already constrained at Ba3 by the relevant foreign currency deposit ceiling.



- Long-term senior unsecured debt and/or issuer ratings:



Nine downgraded by one notch and placed on review for further downgrade (Akbank TAS, Export Credit Bank of Turkey A.S., T.C. Ziraat Bankasi, Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO), and one placed on review for downgrade (QNB Finansbank AS); the other seven Turkish banks affected by this action do not have rated senior unsecured debt. The downgrades reflect the downgrade of the adjusted BCAs, while the placing on review for downgrade of QNB Finansbank AS's senior unsecured rating reflects the relative position against foreign currency debt ceiling. For QNB Finansbank AS, the adjusted BCA is ba2 (previously ba1), in line with the sovereign debt rating; prior to this action, Moody's constrained QNB Finansbank AS's debt ratings at Ba2, the same level as the sovereign.



- Subordinated debt:



Nine downgraded by one notch and placed on review for further downgrade, in line with the downgrade of the adjusted BCAs. The subordinated debt is affected for the following nine banks: Akbank TAS, Alternatifbank A.S., Odea Bank A.S., Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO, Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S. The other eight Turkish banks do not have rated subordinated debt.



- Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment (CR Assessment):



Eight downgraded by one notch and placed on review for further downgrade. Other nine were instead placed on review for downgrade, currently at Ba1(cr) or Ba2(cr). The downgrades reflect the downgrade of the adjusted BCAs; for those placed on review, the action reflects the relative position relative to sovereign ceilings. Out of these nine banks where the long-term CR Assessment was only put on review for downgrade, for four banks (Alternatifbank A.S., ING Bank A.S. (Turkey), QNB Finansbank AS, Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S.), the adjusted BCAs were downgraded to ba2 from ba1, however the long-term CR Assessments were placed on review for downgrade, currently at Ba1(cr), as the long-term CR Assessment for Turkish banks are constrained at Ba1(cr), one level above the Ba2 sovereign debt rating. For five banks (Akbank TAS, Export Credit Bank of Turkey A.S., T.C. Ziraat Bankasi, Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S., Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S.), the adjusted BCA was downgraded to b1 from ba3 and placed on review for further downgrade, however the long-term CR Assessments remain at Ba2(cr) and were placed on review for downgrade; our standard notching continues to provide one notch of uplift for the CR Assessment, and government support now results in a further uplift of one notch to a long-term CR Assessment of Ba2(cr).



- All short-term ratings and CR Assessments were affirmed at Not Prime (NP) and NP(cr) respectively.



- National Scale Ratings (NSR):



The action reflects the action of the deposit rating and Moody's National Scale Rating Maps by country. Overall, the long-term national scale deposit ratings of five out of seven Turkish banks with NSRs were downgraded and placed on review for further downgrade: for HSBC Bank A.S. (Turkey), Odea Bank A.S., Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S., and Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S. by three notches; for Sekerbank T.A.S. by two notches; Moody's placed on review for downgrade the long-term national scale ratings of Alternatifbank A.S. and ING Bank A.S. (Turkey), in line with the review for downgrade of the bank's deposit ratings. The short-term deposit national scale rating of four banks were put on review for downgrade (Alternatifbank A.S., Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S., ING Bank A.S. (Turkey), Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S.), the short-term deposit national scale rating of two banks were downgraded and put on review for downgrade (HSBC Bank A.S. (Turkey), Odea Bank A.S .), and the short-term deposit national scale rating of one bank was downgraded (Sekerbank T.A.S.).



The ratings of the two finance companies Ekspo Faktoring A.S. (corporate family rating and issuer rating B2, national scale issuer rating Ba1.tr) and Optima Faktoring A.S. (corporate family rating B3, issuer rating Caa2, national scale issuer rating B3.tr) were not downgraded because their ratings remain resilient at their current levels to the weaker operating environment. These issuers' ratings were placed on review for downgrade.



LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS



Issuer: Ekspo Faktoring A.S.



..Placed on Review for Downgrade:

....Long-term Corporate Family Ratings, currently B2, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Issuer Ratings, currently B2, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....NSR Long-term Issuer Rating, currently Ba1.tr



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Optima Faktoring A.S.



..Placed on Review for Downgrade:

....Long-term Corporate Family Rating, currently B3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Issuer Ratings, currently Caa2, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....NSR Long-term Issuer Rating, currently B3.tr



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: ING Bank A.S. (Turkey)



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b2 from b1

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to ba2 from ba1



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), currently Ba2, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....NSR Long-term Bank Deposits, currently Aa1.tr

....NSR Short-term Bank Deposits, currently TR-1

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba1(cr)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment , Affirmed NP(cr)



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: QNB Finansbank AS



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to ba2 from ba1



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), currently Ba2, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba1(cr)

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Ba2, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)Ba2



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: T.C. Ziraat Bankasi



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba2(cr)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....NSR Long-term Bank Deposits, downgraded to A1.tr from Aa1.tr

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, downgraded to Ba2(cr) from Ba1(cr)

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to ba3 from ba2

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B2(hyb) from B1(hyb)



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable



....NSR Short-term Bank Deposits, currently TR-1



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S.

..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local and Foreign Currency), downgraded to B1 Rating under Review from Ba3 Negative

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, downgraded to Ba3(cr) from Ba2(cr)

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b3 from b2

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b3 from b2

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B1 Rating under Review from Ba3 Negative

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to (P)Caa2(hyb) from (P)Caa1(hyb)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Negative





Issuer: Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Negative

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Negative

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B2 from B1

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B3(hyb) from B2(hyb)



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Negative

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba2(cr)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Negative





Issuer: Akbank TAS



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), Downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B3(hyb) from B2(hyb)



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba2(cr)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Alternatifbank A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to ba2 from ba1

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b2 from b1

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B1(hyb) from Ba3(hyb)



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), currently Ba2, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....NSR Long-term Bank Deposits, currently Aa1.tr

....NSR Short-term Bank Deposits, currently TR-1

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba1(cr)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Denizbank A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Negative

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, downgraded to Ba2(cr) from Ba1(cr)

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to ba3 from ba2



..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Negative



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Negative





Issuer: Export Credit Bank of Turkey A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Issuer Rating, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2



..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba2(cr)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Issuer Ratings, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: HSBC Bank A.S. (Turkey)



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local and Foreign Currency), downgraded to B1 Rating under Review from Ba3 Negative

....NSR Long-term Bank Deposit, downgraded to Baa2.tr from A2.tr

....NSR Short-term Bank Deposits, downgraded to TR-2 from TR-1

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, downgraded to Ba3(cr) from Ba2(cr)

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b3 from b2

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Negative





Issuer: Odea Bank A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local and Foreign Currency), downgraded to B1 Rating under Review from Ba3 Stable

....NSR Long-term Bank Deposits, downgraded to Baa1.tr from A1.tr

....NSR Short-term Bank Deposits, downgraded to TR-2 from TR-1

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, downgraded to Ba3(cr) from Ba2(cr)

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B3(hyb) from B2(hyb)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Sekerbank T.A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local and Foreign Currency), downgraded to B3 Rating under Review from B2 Stable

....NSR Long-term Bank Deposits, downgraded to Ba2.tr from Baa3.tr

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, downgraded to B2(cr) from B1(cr)

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b3 from b2

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b3 from b2



..Downgraded:

....NSR Short-term Bank Deposits, downgraded to TR-4 from TR-3



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to ba2 from ba1



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), currently Ba2, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba1(cr)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Issuer Ratings, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B3(hyb) from B2(hyb)



..On Review for Possible Downgrade:

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, currently Ba2(cr)



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Issuer Ratings, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi TAO



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b2 from b1

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b2 from b1

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, downgraded to Ba3(cr) from Ba2(cr)

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B3 from B2

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Caa1(hyb) from B3(hyb)

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Stable



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Stable





Issuer: Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S.



..Downgraded and placed under Review for further Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Local Currency), downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Negative

....NSR Long-term Bank Deposits, downgraded to A2.tr from Aa2.tr

....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, downgraded to Ba2(cr) from Ba1(cr)

....Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to b1 from ba3

....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, downgraded to ba3 from ba2

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to Ba3 Rating under Review from Ba2 Negative

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, downgraded to (P)Ba3 from (P)Ba2

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B1 from Ba3

....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, downgraded to B2(hyb) from B1(hyb)



..Placed on Review Downgrade:

....Long-term Bank Deposits (Foreign Currency), currently Ba3, outlook changed to Rating under Review from Negative

....NSR Short-term Bank Deposits, currently TR-1



..Affirmations:

....Short-term Bank Deposits, affirmed NP

....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed NP(cr)

....Other Short Term, affirmed (P)NP



..Outlook Action:

....Outlook changed to Rating under Review from Negative

[TRENDHOUND]

Moodys'in HALKB adına endişe duyduğu mevzuları da ben ekleyeyim: aktiflerin kalitesinde kötüleşme, batık kredi oranında artış, bankanın kapitalizasyonunda aşağı yönlü trend (yorumu şöyle: The bank's capitalisation has been on a downward trajectory since end-2014. Moody's expects capitalisation to remain under pressure given the rapid growth of its assets and volatility in the operating environment), fonlama ihtiyacının %70 gibi çok büyük bir kısmının yüksek maliyetli kısa vadeli finansman bonolarıyla sağlanması ve bu durumun kısa vadeli yükümlülüklerin yeniden finanse edilmesinde yarattığı risk, mevcut ekonomik konjonktürün oluşturduğu riskler.

[Ayan]

Moodys'in HALKB adına endişe duyduğu mevzuları da ben ekleyeyim: aktiflerin kalitesinde kötüleşme, batık kredi oranında artış, bankanın kapitalizasyonunda aşağı yönlü trend (yorumu şöyle: The bank's capitalisation has been on a downward trajectory since end-2014. Moody's expects capitalisation to remain under pressure given the rapid growth of its assets and volatility in the operating environment), fonlama ihtiyacının %70 gibi çok büyük bir kısmının yüksek maliyetli kısa vadeli finansman bonolarıyla sağlanması ve bu durumun kısa vadeli yükümlülüklerin yeniden finanse edilmesinde yarattığı risk, mevcut ekonomik konjonktürün oluşturduğu riskler.

Sayın TH. Bankanın aktif kalitesinde yıkıcı kötüleşme olsa Halk Bankasının kullandırdığı ve tabana yayılmış, döviz riski olmayan kredilerinde mesela emlak sektöründe de çöküş olması gerekmez mi ? Beşiktaşta hala 100 m2 lik ev fiatlarına bakınız. Lüks konutlarda hala uçuk fiatlardan işlem görüyor. Yeni Projelerden hala alım var. Bu kredi dereceledirme kuruluşları birden yüklendiler. Ellerinden gelen hertürlü puştluğu gösteriyorlar. Emir almışlar , düğmeye basıyorlar. Yeni bir durum gibi. Mesela 120000 endekte görmüyorlardı. Ayrıca bunların fiatlandığı gözüküyor. sanırım dip görüldü. Bakın dolar bu haber düştkten sonra düşmeye devam ediyor. Bu yeni bir durum değil. C. Başkanı akşam OHAL in kalkacağını söyledi. Bu ise yeni bir durum. Hattı zatında ülkeden sermaye çıkışının ve güven ortamının yeniden tesisinde elzem bir durumdu. Menbiç olayında bir anlaşma var. Demek ki bardağın dolu tarafı da var. Sadece algı. Daha önce nasılda yükseltmişlerdi ABD ziyaret öncesi. Bence Nato dan Rusya için gelen açıklamalara bakınız. Türkiyeyi asla ve asla kaybetmek istemeyeceklerdir. Avrupanın savunması resmen çöker. Dolar endeksine de bakınız sanki gücü kesildi. 85 lere doğru bir yolculuğu 9. aydan sonra görebiliriz. Bu ise gelişmekte olan ülkelere sermaye artışını tetikler. Bardağın dolu tarafını satın alırlar. Sonra bilirsiniz ki ne kadar olaylar olursa olsun görülmez. Görülen trendlerin olaylardan bağımsız olduğu olacaktır.

[TRENDHOUND]

Sayın TH. Bankanın aktif kalitesinde yıkıcı kötüleşme olsa Halk Bankasının kullandırdığı ve tabana yayılmış, döviz riski olmayan kredilerinde mesela emlak sektöründe de çöküş olması gerekmez mi ? Beşiktaşta hala 100 m2 lik ev fiatlarına bakınız. Lüks konutlarda hala uçuk fiatlardan işlem görüyor. Yeni Projelerden hala alım var. Bu kredi dereceledirme kuruluşları birden yüklendiler. Ellerinden gelen hertürlü puştluğu gösteriyorlar. Emir almışlar , düğmeye basıyorlar. Yeni bir durum gibi. Mesela 120000 endekte görmüyorlardı. Ayrıca bunların fiatlandığı gözüküyor. sanırım dip görüldü. Bakın dolar bu haber düştkten sonra düşmeye devam ediyor. Bu yeni bir durum değil. C. Başkanı akşam OHAL in kalkacağını söyledi. Bu ise yeni bir durum. Hattı zatında ülkeden sermaye çıkışının ve güven ortamının yeniden tesisinde elzem bir durumdu. Menbiç olayında bir anlaşma var. Demek ki bardağın dolu tarafı da var. Sadece algı. Daha önce nasılda yükseltmişlerdi ABD ziyaret öncesi. Bence Nato dan Rusya için gelen açıklamalara bakınız. Türkiyeyi asla ve asla kaybetmek istemeyeceklerdir. Avrupanın savunması resmen çöker. Dolar endeksine de bakınız sanki gücü kesildi. 85 lere doğru bir yolculuğu 9. aydan sonra görebiliriz. Bu ise gelişmekte olan ülkelere sermaye artışını tetikler. Bardağın dolu tarafını satın alırlar. Sonra bilirsiniz ki ne kadar olaylar olursa olsun görülmez. Görülen trendlerin olaylardan bağımsız olduğu olacaktır.

Binbaşım olayları gayet güzel özetlemişsiniz, elinize sağlık. Dolar endeksinde ben de sizinle hemfikirim. Sonbahardan sonra FED'den bir U dönüşü görebiliriz ve böyle yaparsa gelişmekte olan ülkeler çok rahatlar.

[666]

Bu kredi dereceledirme kuruluşları birden yüklendiler. Ellerinden gelen hertürlü puştluğu gösteriyorlar. Emir almışlar , düğmeye basıyorlar. Yeni bir durum gibi.

Sn. Ayan, yaniliyorsunuz derecelendirme kurumlari hakkinda.

Bakin, bu yaziyi Gozde'de Subat ayinin sonunda yazdim. Yildiz aylik 1 MILYAR dolar geri odeme yapiyormus. Kredi veren bankalarin arasinda Halk Bankasi da vardi. Yani birden yuklendiler degil, o zaman ortaya cikmaya basladi bu problemler. Bu konuyu oteki tarafta da yazmistim (Halkbank galiba 800 milyon dolar kredi vermisti Yildiza) ama arada kaynadi tabi ki lagimdan. Yoksa oldukca onemli bir konuydu bu ve olaylar bundan sonraki aylarda corap sokugu gibi gelmeye basladi. Adamlarin musterileri var, yasal zorunluluklari var. Tabi ki hemen onlem aldilar.

Bu olaydan isgillenerek ben Gozde'deki pozisyonumu kapatmistim 5.50'lerden. Kagit 2.70'e indi 3 ayda.

Yildiz requested that the banks consolidate their respective loans into a single credit with a maturity of nine years, and asked that they grant it a three-year grace period before repayment begins. It asked that interest-only payments begin in the fourth year, with principal payments starting in year five.

Simdi bankalar bundan kazaniyor zaten. Durduk yere 3 sene odeme yapmamalarina izin vermeleri bankanin isine nasil yarar? Yani bankalar da girtlagina kadar batti mi bunun icine?