"Core services" CPI jumped by 5.6% annualized in March from February. On a three-month basis, core service CPI jumped by 6.8% annualized, the worst since February 2023. We here have been disconcerted since late last year about inflation in core services. After cooling a lot into mid-2023, it has been reheating. And we started suspecting that the cooling had been one of the head-fakes that inflation is infamous for.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...e-services.png
The three-month core CPI rose by 4.5%, the worst increase since May 2023. The drop in prices of durable goods (dominated by motor vehicles) still softened the impact of hot services inflation, but not enough. Inflation in services is just behaving really badly.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...04-10-core.png
"Supercore CPI" is red hot. The "supercore services CPI" "core services" without housing " jumped by 7.5% annualized in March from February, same red-hot increase as in the prior month, on top of the 11.6% spike in January. So it's not just housing that drives services inflation.
The six-month reading " six months to iron out the very volatile month-to-month readings " jumped by 6.4%, the highest since October 2022. This is really ugly. And we'll get to some of the drivers in a moment:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...ex-housing.png
Asking rents The Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) and other private-sector rent indices track "asking rents, which are advertised rents of vacant units on the market. Because rentals don't turn over that much, the ZORI's spike in 2021 through mid-2022 never fully translated into the CPI indices because not many people actually ended up paying those asking rents.
The chart shows the CPI Rent of Primary Residence (blue, left scale) as index value, not percentage change; and the ZORI in dollars (red, right scale). Zillow has not released the ZORI for March yet. The left and right axes are set so that they both increase each by 50% from January 2017, with the ZORI up by 48% and the CPI Rent up by 37% over the period.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...-rent-ZORI.png
Rent inflation vs. home-price inflation: The red line in the chart below represents the CPI for Rent of Primary Residence (tracking actual rents) as index value, not percentage change. The purple line represents the Case-Shiller 20-Cities Home Price Index (see our "Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America). Both indexes are set to 100 for January 2000:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...se-Shiller.png
Core services price level. Since March 2020, the core services CPI has increased by 19.4%. This chart shows the core services CPI as index value, not as percentage-change of that index value. Note how the curve of price levels has become steeper in recent months.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...ice-level_.png
Alıntı yaparak yanıtla
Originally Posted by deniz43
Yer İmleri