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Truth #1: The Largest Generation in History Has Peaked in Its Spending Cycle...
The recession is not over yet...Americans will experience what the Japanese experienced when they saw their Baby Boom population peak 15 to 20 years earlier than our own Boomer generation.
Truth #2: The Greatest Credit Bubble In Modern History Will Continue to Deleverage Deflation, Not Inflation, Is Ahead.
So many market forecasters these days are talking about inflation.
"We're trying to spend our way out of this mess by printing money," they tell you. "That can only lead to inflation down the road... if not hyperinflation."
On the surface, of course, this sounds logical.
Typically when you flood the economy with newly minted dollars, prices tend to go up “ you get inflationary pressures “ and the value of the dollar tends to go down.
In fact, that's precisely what the Fed has tried to do for the better part of decade: inflate the economy out of this crisis by flooding the market with new dollars.
But it didn't work.
And ahead, we'll see a more deflationary environment as tens of trillions of dollars in loans and financial assets simply disappear faster than they were created in the bubble boom.
Are you aware that there are $225 trillion in financial assets in the world: loans, bonds and stocks. I estimate that at least $100 trillion of that will disappear. Fewer dollars in the world mean deflation, unless governments are going to create $100 trillion of new dollars instead of the $12 trillion they created since the last crash.
I believe it's crucial you understand this.
Because if you base your investments on the likelihood of coming inflation (like buying gold or other inflation-friendly investments), I'm afraid you could be wiped out along with everyone else.
But if you know the real story, not only can you make a lot of money in the short term you could have a rare opportunity to generate a family fortune by the time 2023 rolls around.
Here's why deflation "not inflation " will be the order of the day, likely from around 2016 or 2017 through 2022 or 2023...
History tells us that most severe downturns and depressions have three phases.
A severe crash, like we saw in late 2007 to early 2009, when the Dow fell 55%, from 14,280 down to 6,440.
That's followed by a bear market rally, spurred by renewed economic activity from government stimulus. That's where we are now.
The third phase is a final crash, deeper depression, and a deflationary phase that lasts up to several years.
Truth #3: The Greatest Real Estate Bubble in Modern History Happened between 2000 and 2005... Why Further Declines Are Inevitable
Most people don't know this, but the stock market crash of 29 wasn't solely responsible for the Great Depression of the 1930s and 40s.
It was the failure of real estate!
And what about new homebuyers? Those 20-somethings entering the market?
They're too bogged down with unbearable student loan debts and extreme levels of job insecurity to have as much of an effect as they normally would . There simply aren't enough people to replace the decline in baby boom demand and absorb the homes freed up in the market as they die.
It'll take years to absorb the millions of units in excess inventory “ foreclosures, empty new construction and existing homes for sale.
Plus the new, younger generation is much more cautious about buying homes, and spending in general, after seeing phase one of this great bubble crash.
It all means we could be mere months away from the next wave of real estate collapse.
We believe we're about to see the final chapter of the biggest real estate shakeout in history and that shake-out is likely to last into around 2022.
......
What does this mean to you?
For one thing it means, if you're holding on to property with the sole expectation it will go up by double digits - or if you're counting on gaining lost equity back over the next few years - sell it now.
.................
So what should you do?
Here's the first thing:
Get out of traditional stock investments now as it is better to be a bit early than too late as stock bubbles burst much more dramatically than they inflate, typically 30% to 40% in the first sharp move down just look at China who is leading the first phase of the next great crash down 35% in just 3 weeks!
......
That's why we recommend putting as much into cash as soon as you can at least for now.
Why?
Because in deflationary times, cash is king.
Reversing this unprecedented credit bubble will destroy many loans and credit it will destroy dollars, making them more scarce and valuable!
Also, be ready to sell your gold, silver and other precious metal investments in the not too distant future. We gave our strongest sell signal back in April of 2011 on the day silver hit $48 and just a few months before gold peaked and started to crash as well.
But when there's deflation and a strengthening currency “ gold and silver prices will fall along with most other assets as they did in late 2008 when the crisis fully hit.
If you happen to be holding any foreign currencies, convert them to dollars. At least while dollars are “cheap" compared to many currencies, which won't be the case in the next 2 years or so.
By converting back to dollars now, it'll be like buying a sure-fire investment at 10-year lows.
Next thing is something I have already alluded to
Temberller için böyle özetleyebildim kendimce önemli gördüğüm noktaları...
Aklıma sevgili enki ve durmadan burada yazdıkları gelerek...
Bronz Üye
bir dolar 31 TL mi oluyor 69 TL mi?Originally Posted by ayhan53
Değerli arkadaşlar, takım vb. tutar gibi pozisyon tutup bazı hoş olmayan sözlere mazur kalmak beni kırıyor. Benim kırdığım da olduysa şimdiden özür dilerim. Artık yazmayacağım. Selamlar, saygılar.
Ezcümle...
Adam...
- Evinizi, esham tahvilatınızı satın, altından gümüşten uzak durun, nakde dönün ve emsalleri arasında şu anda en ucuz para birimi olan dolarla bekleyin krizi diyor...
Borçlanma, basit yaşa, arabanı bile değiştirme demekte...
Her krizden zenginler çıktığı gibi bu krizden de, iyi analiz yapanlar, iyi bir fırsat yakalayacaklar demekte kahinimiz...
Ben, tutar tutmaz, yaparım yapmam bilmiyorum, ama dediklerinin bir çoğuna inanıyorum.
Örneğin şu an oturmakta olduğum evi satmaya kalksam eşim izin vermeyecektir eminim...
Oysa en büyük sermaye o olmalı....
Yeni Üye
Sn. Chronical aşağıdada zurnanın zırt dediği yerdeyiz..DXY buralardan dönmeli diye düşünüyorum..FED toplantısı belirleyici olabilir..
Büyük bir ihtimalle buralardan dönüş oldu veya olacak..Euro ağustos 2015 zirvesini denedi ve saldı kendini aşağıya, dolayısıyla DXY dip yapmış olabilir.. Bu yüzden 1,1711 geçilmeyince Eur shortladım..(Double top?!?) Yarın FED piyasayı bozacak tahminimce. QT Eylül'de die açıklayabilir ve parite 1,143X lara kadar gevşeyebilir..Dolar TL de 3,65X denemesi yapar..Tabi ki sadece bir öngörü, yatırım tavsiyesi değil..
Kıdemli Üye
MACD "AL" verdi. Yatırım Önerisi Değildir.
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