$$$$$$$$$.........dolar.........$$$$$$$$$

[bahri]

Dediðiniz gibi ancak rusyada uygulanabilir

[Moruk]

Geçsin abi geçsin mühim deðil . Enki Hocamýn bir jiroskop teoremi vardý eskiden eski nick i ile yazarken
Yani teker dönsünde
Anti Tröst diger adiyla kartellesmeme vb onlar sadece birer yasa
Para yoksa. Yiyecek yemek yok
Ezberleri unut Bahri hocam
Bisikletin tekeri durana kadar döner ne kadar uzun giderse o kadar iyi Bu ahvalde tabi
Yatýrým tavsiyesi degil

[bahri]

Allah yardýmcýmýz olsun diyelim ozaman bakalým daha ne enteresan þeyler göreceðiz

[Moruk]

Haklýsýn
Daha yeni baþlýyoz
Ýkinci kez yaziyom hatta anlaþýlýr olsun diye de azcik basit diyagramlastiriyom asagida
Uzun vade þöyle bi dünya yok

Fabrika --> Bayi --> nihai tüketici

Her ay zam ! E haliyle silsile ile
Denklemin sonunda yer alan. Der ki. Yarabbi Þükür, :-(
Bu yalancý cennette bile olmaz tabi ki ya. Ýþin esprisi
Gidiþ bu yönlü olursa
Motoru dagitiyon
Öte türlü yavaaaassslayip gidersende, sonunda havasýzlýktan gidiyon
Üçüncü ihtimal ben göremedim
Bilen gören yazsýn
Yatýrým tavsiye degil

[Occhiali]

David Brady, DXY'de güçlü bir çýkýþ ihtimaline iþaret etmiþ. Gerekçeleri dört ana baþlýkta toplamýþ: 1) Avrupa'da zayýf büyüme, 2) ABD ve Almanya faiz oranlarý arasýndaki fark (grafiði aþaðýda), 3) Teknik görünüm ve 4) Vadeli piyasalarda speklerin pozisyonu.

DXY'deki çýkýþýn genellikle deðerli madenler için olumsuz sonuçlar doðurduðunu kaydediyor ancak bazý zamanlarda beraber çýkýþ yaptýklarýný da not ediyor.

DXY'deki çýkýþýn sonbaharda borsalarda çöküþe sebep olmasýný bekliyor.

Türkçesi bu kadar! Ýngilizcesi az biraz daha uzun!

Arada bir not daha: Bamabroker, altýnýn çýkmasý için altýn hisselerinin altýna olan oranýnýn yükselmesi gerektiðine inanýyor ve bu nedenle GDXJ:GLD oranýný takip ediyor. Bu oranýn grafiðindeki teknik iyileþme nedeniyle, Bama'da altýný beðenmeye baþladý.

--------------------------------------------------

David Brady
https://twitter.com/GlobalProTrader/...64930468179968

DXY & the EUR … MASSIVE DOLLAR RALLY POSSIBLE HERE

The primary reasons why the DXY began its current rally on Apr 17th are key to understanding where the DXY is going from here.

There are several principal reasons:

FUNDAMENTAL

• German and EU growth “officially” dumped based on several economic indicators, most notably the ZEW survey of economic sentiment, which collapsed in March but then again in April to its lowest level since early 2012. This was released on April 17. (The blame was attributed to increasing global trade tensions. This is the ‘narrative’, truth is they can make a survey say anything they want with a specific end goal in mind: a weaker euro and a stronger dollar)
• At the same time, multiple Fed speakers were talking up US growth, inflation, and interest rates.

YIELD DIFFERENTIALS

• The spread between the 10Y US treasury yield and the 10Y German Bund yield had been widening since Sept 2017.
• This is normally closely associated with the EUR/USD exchange rate, which makes up 60% of the DXY.
• However the correlation had broken down when the dollar peaked in Nov’17 and the 10Y spread continued to widen.
• The news about the slowdown in Europe in April was the straw that broke the camel’s back and caused the DXY to start to converge back towards the 10Y spread. It has a LOT of catching up to do!

TECHNICALS

• If the 10Y spread had been widening for some time, why did we have to wait until April for the DXY to rally hard?
• Based on closing prices, the DXY had a double bottom on Feb 1 and Feb 15, and then a slightly higher low on Mar 26, before its low on Apr 17. It was carving out a bottom at its 200 month MA and channel support before heading higher. The ZEW survey was just the match that lit the fire under the dollar.

POSITIONING / FUTURES

• The other reason the dollar continued to fall even as the 10Y spread widened was the fact that Large Speculators were loading up long on Euros. This drove the EUR/USD higher and the DXY lower.
• So what changed on April 17? Large Specs hit a record high long position of 151k contracts and it has been falling ever since.

These were the primary reasons for the DXY’s rally, EUR’s fall, even though there were other reasons too such as the peak in TIPS on Apr 17, trough in real yields at 56bp, and the trough in 2Y-10Y yield curve spread in the US at 41bp. It was the perfect storm!

This isn’t meant to be a history lesson but by looking at where we have come from, we can look at where we’re going in the future. The reason I share this is because I believe the dollar could go a lot higher now and that it won’t peak until some or all of the following occur:

• US economy goes into recession or stock markets crash, causing US Bond yields to collapse
• The DXY reconverges with the US-German 10Y Yield spread
• DXY hits a weekly or monthly negatively divergent peak technically
• Large Specs are flat or heavily short EUR

We will get pullbacks in between, nothing goes up in a straight line, but this is what I see going forward based on what has happened in the recent past.

This would obviously not be good for precious metals but keep an eye on the correlation between the DXY and Gold, sometimes they do rally together.

I do believe that a strong dollar coupled with far higher US bond yields, 10Y ~3.50%, driven by QT, contribute to the crash in stocks later this year.

[ayhan53]

http://www.hisse.net/topluluk/showthread.php?t=24150

seçimler için hissenet anketi açýlmýþtýr
oylama gizlidir. oyunuz hiçbir þekilde gözükmeyecektir.
hissenetin anketleri net skoru göstermez ama genede oylamaya ne kadar çok katýlan olursa o kadar saðlýklý olur.
sadece oyumuzu kullanalým yorum yapmayalým
hayýrlý olsun

[gundwane]

eurusd paritesi 1.15 1.18 bandý aralýðýna girdi..

Dikkat edilirse bizde dolar hareketi baþladýðýnda eurusd de daha gevþeme yoktu..
Ama indikatörler 1.25 i tepe olarak iþaretlemiþ idi..

eurusd biraz gecikmeli düþüþe baþladý..

Eylül ayýnda da ayný durum olmuþ dolar da sifonu çektikler 4 aralýk günü eurusd henüz diplerde debelenirken dolar tamam bir süreliðine demiþlerdi..

Sonrasýnda 4 ay dolar 3.75 3.82 bandýnda gitti geldi..

[gundwane]

eurusd de 1.1580 1.1600 lar tek destek noktamýz gibi biþi..

1.15 altýnda borsa baþladýðý noktaya yakýn bir yerlere döner dolar 4.80 5 tl lere çýkar..