Altn ye
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...x-reserves-100
There was just one problem: the central bank appears to have been if not lying, then grossly misrepresenting the true state of the country's foreign reserves .
Sanki kt bieylerden bahsediyorlar.
Deniz hocam bi gz atp, zetlersen iyi olurdu.
Yatrm tavsiyesi deildir.
Altn ye
Where things get interesting is what happened next: by April 5, the net reserve figure had swelled to $23.6BN, boosted by an increase in swaps. However, excluding swaps, net foreign assets have stood at less than $11.5bn during the entire month of April, down from $28.7bn at the start of March on the same basis.Originally Posted by ahit
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...x-reserves-100
There was just one problem: the central bank appears to have been if not lying, then grossly misrepresenting the true state of the country's foreign reserves .
Sanki kt bieylerden bahsediyorlar.
Deniz hocam bi gz atp, zetlersen iyi olurdu.
In other words, Turkey is officially misrepresenting its current reserves by as much as 100% just to give the impression that it can continue defending the lira, when in reality is it using the very same dollars - swapped out from commercial banks - that the local population had converted into dollars as part of their flight away from the lira.
ngilizcem zayf lakin bu cmleler hoafma gitmedi.
Yatrm tavsiyesi deildir.
''5 Nisan'a kadar net rezerv rakamnn , takaslardaki artla artarak 23.6 milyar dolara ykseldiini, bununla beraber, takaslar hari net d varlklarn Nisan ay hari 11.5 milyar dolarn altnda kalmaya devam ettiini ''sylyor.
Yerel halkn trk liralarn dolara evirmekte uua geerken,merkez bankasnn trk lirasn savunmaya devam edebilecei algs verebilmek iin ,gerekte -ticari bankalardan takas yolu ile ald- ve ayn kulland dolarlarla mevcut rezervlerini %100 kadar resmi olarak yanl beyan etmektedir ''diyor.
Konunun z merkez bankasnn rezervlerini gerek d ''ikin' gsterdii ile ilgili.Bu konuda ok daha kapsaml bir makaleyi Financial Times yaynlam ,dn akam ben de yazmtm.Buraya da alyorum:
https://www.ft.com/content/9718e75e-...5-3acd5d43599e
(financial times'in yazs cretli yelik olduu iin tam metini buraya aldm)
Turkey props up reserves with billions of dollars in short-term borrowing
Use of swaps bolsters financial buffer but sharpens investor fears
Turkey's central bank has bolstered its foreign currency reserves with billions of dollars of short-term borrowed money, raising fears among analysts and investors that the country is overstating its ability to defend itself in a fresh lira crisis.
Reported net foreign reserves held by the central bank stood at $28.1bn in early April-a sum that investors already believed was inadequate because of Turkey's heavy need for dollars to cover debt and foreign trade. But calculations by the Financial Times suggest that this total has been enhanced by an unusual surge in the use of short-term borrowing, or swaps, since March 25. Stripping those swaps out, the total is less than $16bn.
Analysts and investors, already skittish about putting money to work in Turkey given the direction of economic policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are concerned that the state of the financial defences leaves the country ill-equipped to deal with any potential market crisis.
However, some market watchers were uncomfortable. "I don't think these are conventional operations and they are somewhat less than transparent,''said Julian Rimmer, an emerging-market equities trader at Investec Bank. He added: ''A central bank cannot risk being seen as economical with the truth.''
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...hest&width=700
A former senior official at Turkey's central bank, who did not wish to be named, said the extra dollars had been borrowed, not earned. "This is not an orthodox [approach to] central bank reserve build-up."
The currency briefly tumbled late last month on concerns about a sharp drop in foreign reserves, in an echo of the crisis that engulfed the lira last summer and triggered a blast of inflation and the first recession in a decade.
The bank's reserve figures eventually began to climb again. But the analysis by the FT raises questions about that recovery.
"There's a general unease about what's going on behind the scenes,"said Tim Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management. A lack of transparency was undermining the bank's already fragile credibility, he warned.
Five other investors and analysts who have closely studied the bank's activities in recent weeks spoke on condition of anonymity to the FT about their concerns over the reserves. Several of them were fearful of speaking out on the issue after Turkish regulators launched probes into JPMorgan last month over its advice to clients to sell the lira.
Investors said they were worried about this practice of using one-week currency swaps, in which liras are exchanged for US dollars with local banks with an agreement to later reverse the transaction. They believe that this borrowing has flattered the central bank's reserves data.
Some investors argue that the borrowed money should be stripped out of net foreign reserve data, leaving a remaining sum that is well below $20bn.
In its response to the FT, the central bank confirmed that dollars borrowed in the first part of these transactions are added to the balance sheet. The obligation to later repay the dollars is recorded as an "off balance sheet item".
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...hest&width=700
The use of swaps has sharpened fears that began to gather last month that the bank was burning through its hard currency to hold the lira steady in the run-up to local elections on March 31. The central bank declined to comment on whether it has intervened in this way.
The impact of the swaps transactions is most vividly illustrated in the central bank's daily balance sheet, which contains figures for foreign assets and liabilities that have been intensely scrutinised by analysts in recent weeks.
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service...hest&width=700
While the central bank said its steps are in keeping with international norms, analysts and investors say that these tactics risk undermining its credibility.
Piotr Matys, an emerging market currency strategist at Rabobank, said the use of swaps seemed to be "some sort of window dressing" to create the impression of higher reserves.
https://www.ft.com/content/9718e75e-...5-3acd5d43599e
Adding to the anxiety, the boost to reserves does not precisely match the scale of borrowing through swaps, raising questions about whether some funds may have been used to support the lira. The central bank did not directly respond to a question about the discrepancy, nor to a question about whether it used measures to prop up the currency since March 31 elections. However, it did say a variety of factors could account for the shifting total.
The swaps transactions were among the many tools that the central bank used to ''contribute to domestic banks" efficiency and flexibility in their liquidity management "the central bank said, adding: "The [Turkish central bank], as other central banks, considers all of its gross reserves as freely usable to meet liabilities and a range of policy objectives."
The central bank suggested that analysts were wrong to focus on a net international reserves figure that is published once a week. It stressed that international reserve adequacy measures used the gross figure to test a country's preparedness. Turkey's gross foreign reserves stood at around $77bn in the first week of April.
But many analysts see both the gross and net sums as inadequate for a country with a volatile currency and $177bn in short-term external debt coming due in the next 12 months.
"The bottom line is that they don't have enough, whether it's net or gross,''said Mr Ash at BlueBay. "Everyone in the market knows that Turkey doesn't have enough foreign currency reserves to mount a sustained and credible defence of the lira."
Son dzenleme : deniz43; 18-04-2019 saat: 08:15.
Konunun z merkez bankasnn rezervlerini gerek d ''ikin' gsterdii ile ilgili.Bu konuda ok daha kapsaml bir makaleyi Financial Times yaynlam ,''ZEROHEDGE' de FT'ye paralel merkez bankasnn rezervleri ile ilgili bir yaz yazm,,dn akam FT'yi yazmtm.
Financial Times'n yazsnda:
Financial Times'n bavurusu zerine yazl bir cevap yollayan TCMB "Trkiye rezervlerini milyarlarca dolar borla takviye ediyor" balkl haberde Merkez Bankasnn cevabn yaynlad..
Haber "TCMB rezervlerini ksa vadeli dolar borla takviye ederek olas bir krizde TL'yi savunma gcn abartyor" ifadeleriyle balyor.
TCMB'nin en son raporunda net rezervleri 28.1 milyar dolar hesapland. Fakat, FT'nin swap ilemleri ayklandktan sonra bulduu mebla sadece 16 milyar dolar.
TCMB swap ilemlerinin rezerv meblan etkileyebileceini kabul etti, fakat muhasebeletirmenin uluslararas normlara uygun olduunun altn izdi. Ancak, Financial Times'in grt baz piyasa katlmclar bu aklamadan sonra dahi rahatszlklarn ifade ettiler. Investec Bankas GOP trader Julian Rimmer "Bu (swaplarn) olaan ilemler olduunu dnmyorum. Merkez Bankalar gerekler hususunda bu denli ketum olmamal" yorumunu yapt.
Adn vermek istemeyen bir eski TCMB yneticisi ise "Bunlar bor, kazanlm para deil. Rezerv artrmann geleneksel yntemi bu deildir" dedi.
Financial Times'in hesaplarna gre gemite swap hesabnda 500 milyon dolardan fazla bakiye gstermeyen TCMB'nin bu kalemde borlar 8 Nisan haftasnda 13 milyar dolara ykseldi.
Adn vermek istemeyen be uzman veya yatrmc da FT'la rezerv dzeyi hakknda kayglarn paylatlar. FT'a gre bu kiiler JP Morgan aleyhinde soruturma balatlmasndan sonra bu konuda aka konumaktan ekindiklerini sylediler.
FT tanmlarn biraz deitii gnlk analitik bilanodan da SWAP ilemlerini kartarak rezerv hesab yapt. Bu hesaba gre net dviz rezervleri Nisan ay boyunca 11.5 milyar dolarn altnda seyretti. E yntemlerle hesaplanan Mart ba rezervleri ise 28.7 milyar dolar olarak rapor edildi.
FT'ye gre, swap ilemleri dahil edilse dahi, Mart-Nisan arasnda rezervlerde bir kayp var. FT bu kaybn TCMB'nin kamuya verdii borla ilgili olup olmadn sordu. TCMB soruya ak cevap vermedi, fakat "SWAP operasyonlar Bankamzn yerli bankalarn likidite ynetimi ve etkin almasn salamada kulland uluslararas kabul gren bir yntemdir" demekle yetindi. TCMB ayrca genel kabul grm rezerv rasyosunun brt rezervler olduunu, nk gerektii zaman tm bu meblan Banka'nn kullanmna amade olduunu vurgulad.
Halen 77 milyar dolar olan brt rezervlerin de bir yl iinde 177 milyar dolar d bor evirmesi gereken ekonomi iin yetersiz olduu iddia ediliyor.
VADES 5-10 YIL ARASI TRK BANKALARININ DOLAR CNS TAHVLLERNDE DURUM
irket Ad ISIN Para Birimi Kupon % Vade Sonu Tahvil Tipi Fiyat Getiri % Kredi Notu (Moody's / Fitch) Miktar (MM) Fiyat Performans 1A
VAKIFBANK XS1175854923 USD 6.875 2/3/2025 Subordinated 90.28 9.94 Caa2/B 500 -5.20%
AKBANK XS1210422074 USD 5.125 3/31/2025 Sr Unsecured 86.69 7.98 B1/B+ 500 -4.33%
ALBARAKA XS1301525207 USD 10.500 11/30/2025 Subordinated 99.70 10.69 NA/NA 250 0.03%
TRK TELEKOM XS1955059420 USD 6.875 2/28/2025 Sr Unsecured 97.18 7.48 NA/BB+ 500 N/A
KUVEYT TRK XS1323608635 USD 7.900 2/17/2026 Subordinated 100.10 7.83 NA/B+ 350 -0.01%
YAPI KRED XS1376681067 USD 8.500 3/9/2026 Subordinated 92.50 10.93 B3/B+ 500 -5.87%
ALTERNATFBANK XS1396282177 USD 8.750 4/16/2026 Subordinated 92.18 11.36 B2/B+ 300 N/A
AKBANK XS1574750292 USD 7.200 3/16/2027 Subordinated 82.94 10.57 Caa1/B 500 -10.92%
TSKB XS1584113184 USD 7.625 3/29/2027 Subordinated 80.54 11.62 Caa2/B 300 -9.03%
GARANT BANKASI XS1617531063 USD 6.125 5/24/2027 Subordinated 81.37 9.78 B3/B+ 750 -8.64%
ODEABANK XS1655085485 USD 7.625 8/1/2027 Subordinated 75.77 12.69 Caa2/B- 300 N/A
VAKIFBANK XS1551747733 USD 8.000 11/1/2027 Subordinated 83.88 11.10 Caa2/B 228 -8.12%
FBABANKA XS1386178237 USD 7.750 11/24/2027 Subordinated 82.25 10.91 NA/B- 300 -3.74%
AKBANK XS1772360803 USD 6.797 4/27/2028 Subordinated 79.44 10.18 Caa1/B 400 -11.31%
BANKASI XS1623796072 USD 7.000 6/29/2028 Subordinated 77.92 11.12 Caa2/B 500 -8.41%
YAPI KRED XS1867595750 USD 13.875 PERP Jr Subordinated 100.11 13.74 Caa1u/NA 650 -7.13%
HAZNE TAHVL
TRKYE 15 YIL VADEL EUROBOND 8,07 -0,14 -1,73
Sadk ye
Deniz Bey merhaba,
Sene banda yapm olduunuz eurusd kur tahmininde bir revizyon ngryor musunuz (2019 sene sonu 1.03 gibi bir deer ngrmtnz gibi kalm aklmda) bilgi verebilirseniz sevinirim.
imdiden teekkr ederim. yi, gzel gnler
Hayr,mevcut ngrm koruyorum.Nedenlerini yllk ngrlerim kapsamnda,bu balk altnda 198. sayfada ifade etmitim.Aradan geen sre iinde ABD ekonomisi iin de baz olumsuz gelimeler olsa da,Euro Blgesinde makroekonomik veriler ABD'ye gre ok daha kt geldi,dolaysyla yl sonu iin ngrmde -u an iin- bir revizyon dnmyorum.
Sadk ye
Teekkr ederim,
Salkl gzel gnler dileklerimle
Gnderi Kurallar
Alnt yaparak yantla
Yer mleri