...:::vobelıt:::...

[cihangirkonya]

Gözden kaçırmisim. Tesekkurler

[deniz43]

https://x.com/KarelMercx/status/2020166396605252069

Why silver will reach a new ATH

"The best proof that it was reckless speculators being liquidated, and not the professional silver market, can be seen in the lease rates in London. London is the largest trading hub in the world for physical silver. Professional market participants there not only buy silver, they also regularly lend it to one another. This happens, for example, when one participant needs to deliver silver soon but does not yet have it, while another holds inventory that will only be needed weeks later.
Lending for short periods normally takes place around 0% for one month. Sometimes slightly higher if the lender wants to earn something, sometimes a bit lower when there is too much inventory. Anything above 1% for one month is already a sign of stress. The lease rate is now around 4.5%. That is extreme and shows how tight physical silver is. Chart 3 clearly shows that in normal years, such as 2023 and 2024, the lease rate hovered around 0%."

"Another way to see the tightness in silver is chart 4. The one-year silver swap minus U.S. interest rates is effectively saying: I don't care what the paper price of silver is. I need physical silver, and I need it now.

In a normal market, the one-year silver swap minus U.S. interest rates is above zero. That is called contango.
Why? Because owning silver has a cost of carry. If you buy physical silver today and hold it for a year, your capital is tied up and you pay for storage and insurance. Those costs are reflected in the forward price. Signal: there is plenty of physical silver available. No stress. No urgency.
When the line drops below zero, the market moves into backwardation. That is unusual for a storable commodity like silver. It means buyers are willing to pay a premium to get the metal now rather than later. Signal: there is a shortage of physical silver in the spot market. Fabricators, mints and industrial users need metal immediately and cannot wait.
The market is effectively saying: We need your silver so badly that we will pay you to sell it now and buy it back later. Right now we are not just in backwardation. We are in extreme backwardation.

Chart 5 shows the inventories at COMEX.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAj9M3JX...g&name=900x900

And chart 6 shows the inventories in Shanghai.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HAj9j9NW...g&name=900x900

For now, however, the data points in the opposite direction. Lease rates remain elevated, the market is in backwardation, and inventories continue to decline.
The excessive leverage that amplified the recent collapse has largely been cleared from the system. What remains is a market where physical tightness, not speculative excess, sets the tone.
This was not the end of the silver bull market. It was the reset before the next leg higher."

[Kurt73]

2026 da piyasalardan uzak kalmiştim.
Sn Hocam Deniz43 topiğini okudum bu süreç için ve detayli bilgilenmiş oldum.
Sağolun varolun Hocam.
Saygılarımla.

[deniz43]

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/08/japa...-poll-nhk.html

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi's ruling LDP seen winning outright majority in snap election: NHK

Early projections suggests a victory margin in line with forecasts.
The LDP-JIP coalition is projected to win 366 of 465 seats.
The election comes amid heightened tensions between Japan and China and economic weakness.