Borsamýzda uzun vadeli yatýrým için henüz þartlarýn uygun olmadýðý düþüncesindeyim ama "trade" amaçlý her seviyeden kýsa vadeli alým-satým tabii ki yapýlabilir.Originally Posted by cevdet _060
Borsamýzda uzun vadeli yatýrým için henüz þartlarýn uygun olmadýðý düþüncesindeyim ama "trade" amaçlý her seviyeden kýsa vadeli alým-satým tabii ki yapýlabilir.
Yeni Üye
swap hariç rezervler ne durumdadýr sayýn deniz43
teþekkürler
Thursday June 03 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
04:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Final MAY 68.7 63.5 68.1
04:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Final MAY 70.4 64.7 70.1
ABD'den 1 çok kuvvetli veri daha.Ama daha da ötesinde tüm zamanlarýn en kuvvetli hizmetler ve bileþik endeks verisi,grafiðin maksimum sekmesini týkladýðýmzda bunu net olarak görebiliyoruz.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-.../composite-pmi
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/services-pmi
ABD ekonomisinin aþýrýya kaçan büyük mali teþvikler ve aþýrý gevþek para politikasýyla motorundan duman tütecek þekilde aþýrý ýsýndýðýný,ikinci çeyrekte geliþmiþ bir ekonomi için inanýlmaz oranda %10'un üzerinde büyüdüðünü(Atlanta Fed) ve hýzla tedbir alýnmaz bunun enflasyonda çok büyük bir dalgaya yol açacaðýný söylenebilir.
Hesaplayýnca ,tabloyu burada yayýnlarým.
Gümüþ Üye
Sn deniz43,
NY FED'in Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility'de satýþa gitmesi nasýl yorumlanabilir?
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevent.../2021/20210603
Yatýrým tavsiyesi içermez ve asla yatýrým tavsiyesi DEÐÝLDÝR.
Thursday June 03 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
05:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI MAY 64 62.7 63
05:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity MAY 66.2 62.7 67.2
05:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices MAY 80.6 76.8
05:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders MAY 63.9 63.2
05:00 PM
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment MAY 55.3 58.8
Güçlü bir veri daha...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-mana.../services/may/
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING(Katýlýmcýlar ne söylüyorlar)
"Stimulus money, increased vaccinations, increased dining capacity and pent-up demand are driving a fast recovery for dine-in restaurants - and all consumer segments, it seems - resulting in labor shortages and supply chain gaps." [Accommodation & Food Services]
"Container delays are impacting our supply chain in a significant way. Delays at the Port of Montreal and West Coast ports have impacted our ability to provide products in growing season. Truck availability has generally been tighter than normal. We've seen a real impact in the southeastern market." [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
"Business continues to improve, and we have worked through many of the supply chain disruptions at this time. We have begun to return to work at our corporate office on a limited basis." [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
"We are still busy and adding employees. One of the biggest concerns now is shortages of crucial material and equipment. Metal coils for production are especially scarce. Equipment and material suppliers have been raising prices since the first of the year. We hear of a new increase almost daily." [Construction]
"We anticipated the reopening reasonably well but were caught off guard with respect to some materials. Steel and copper went higher than anticipated, and shortages are having an impact."[Finance & Insurance]
"As the vaccination rate continues to climb and the coronavirus (COVID-19) infection rate continues to plummet, business conditions are steadily improving: Strong revenue performance is returning, and outlooks are improving. Some supply categories remain constrained (nitrile gloves, sterile wrap and the like), yet are somewhat manageable, limiting the impact to daily operations." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
"(We are) seeing cost increases and long lead times with steel and steel containers. Worker shortages, temp labor and the like." [Management of Companies & Support Services]
"Transportation, labor, steel and general commodities are all increasing (in price) based upon general inflation and the rising price of oil." [Mining]
"Small businesses in the area are reporting stimulus checks and extension of unemployment are hampering their ability to hire workers. Seasonal labor and H-2B (visa) workers are in very short supply, causing an uptick in cost per hour. Some employers are reporting they are offering cash incentives of (US)$50 if you show up for an interview." [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
"Business is very strong, and customer orders continue to increase at a rapid pace. Material shortages, increased prices and qualified personnel shortages are becoming a much larger concern." [Real Estate, Rental & Leasing]
"Very concerned about the rapid and continuing price escalations for any products with copper, steel, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Production issues and lead-time extensions are not improving." [Retail Trade]
"Business is doing good, exceeding sales target, but we have challenging issues with (1) increases in raw-materials costs and freight rates, (2) huge freight delays from overseas and (3) continued U.S. port delays. The (COVID-19 surges) in India and Taiwan are also causing delays on product availability/shipments." [Wholesale Trade]
Sonuç olarak:
-Çok güçlü tüketici talebi var.
-Ýþgücü kýtlýðý son safhada,çalýþtýrýlacak eleman bulmada büyük zorluk yaþanýyor.
-Tedarik zincirinde mal temininde zorluklar var.
-Hem üretim maliyetleri yükselmiþ durumda,hem talebi karþýlayacak üretim yapýlamadýðýndan arz eksikliði hem de kuvvetli tüketici talebi olduðundan ABD'de enflasyonun ivmesi giderek artacak gibi gözüküyor.
Ýmalat dýþý ISM PMI verisi de tüm zamanlarýn en iyi verisi:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...ufacturing-pmi
Yeni Üye
Sn Deniz43
yayýmladýðýnýz merkez bankasý verilerini uzun süredir takip ediyorum, buna istinaden uzun süredir altýn hariç merkez bankasý rezerv rakamý -84 milyar dolar civarlarýnda seyrediyor yaklaþýk 5-6 aydýr bu rakam sabit,
gördüðüm kadarýyla swaplarda sabit buna karþýn salgýndan dolayý döviz geliri giriþimiz de minimum seviyede,
son iki yýlýn kýsa vadeli borç ödemesi 190 milyar dolar civarýnda, yani altý aylýk ödememiz yaklaþýk 95 milyar dolar civarý..
geçtiðimiz yýllarda hýzla azalan döviz rezervinde karþýlanan bu rakamlar son altý ayda nereden finanse edilmiþtir ?
toparlamam gerekirse; döviz rezervi sizin hesaplarýnýza göre -84 milyar dolar civarýnda hemen hemen sabit kalýrken bu kadar yüksek döviz borcu nasýl finanse edildi...
tekrar borçlanma yoluyla finanse edildiyse borç verenler bu finansal tabloda bihaber lermi ?
ve bu durum nereye kadar sürdürebilir ?
þimdiden teþekkür ederim...
Merkez Bankasý net döviz rezervleri
*BÝN 02 Haziran 2021 Çarþamba
Dýþ varlýklar 797,931,402
Dýþ yükümlülükler 59,152,252
Bankalar döviz mevduatý 610,962,624
Kamu döviz mevduatý 94,571,262
NET DÖVÝZ REZERVÝ(TL) 33,245,264
1USD 8.6066
NET DÖVÝZ REZERVÝ(USD) 3,862,764
Altýn rezervi 26,480,484
Swap ile merkez bankasýna 61,602,000
emanet gelen para
Swap hariç net rezerv(altýn dahil) -57,739,236
Swap hariç net rezerv(altýn hariç) -84,219,720
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