...:::vobelýt:::...

[deniz43]

Fed kararý

July 28, 2021

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued July 28, 2021

[nosfecagri]

Sap yiyip saman s..týk dememiþ mi Ýngilizce olarak ne dersiniz hocam?

Fed kararý

July 28, 2021

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT


The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvement but have not fully recovered. Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations will likely continue to reduce the effects of the public health crisis on the economy, but risks to the economic outlook remain.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.

Implementation Note issued July 28, 2021

SM-N985F cihazýmdan hisse.net mobile app kullanarak gönderildi.

[cevdet _060]

https://twitter.com/AnlikDoviz?s=09

[cevdet _060]

https://twitter.com/AnlikDoviz?s=09

Deniz Hocam yukarýdaki linkteki haberlerde Yýlýn ilk yarýsýnda altýn talebi %11 azalarak 1,833 ton oldu . Küresel altýn talebi ikinci çeyrekte %1 azalarak 955 ton geriledi yazmýþ.
Yine Dünya Altýn Konseyi (WGC) tarafýnda açýklanana verilere göre, Türkiye'de 2. çeyrek dönemde taký altýn talebi geçen yýlýn ayný dönemine oranla 2 kattan fazla arttý .Ayný dönemde yatýrým için altýn talebinde ise keskin bir düþüþ yaþandý. Yatýrým için altýn talebi çeyrek bazda %91 , yýllýk bazda %79 düþerek 4,1 tona geldi. Rakam 2008 4. çeyrekten bu yana en düþük seviye olarak kayýtlara geçti yazmýþ sizce altýnýn ve dolarýn gerilemesini neye baðlýyorsunuz?

[deniz43]

Merkez bankasý haftalýk istatistikleri(16 Temmuz haftasý)

-Merkez bankasý -altýn hariç- brüt döviz rezervleri 297 milyon dolar arttý.

-Yabancýlar 62.0 milyon dolarý hisse senedi sattýlar, 56.5 milyon dolar hazine tahvili aldýlar.

-Döviz tevdiat hesaplarý parite ve altýn ons fiyatý arýndýrýlmýþ olarak ;

-Döviz tevdiat hesaplarý 1727 milyon dolar arttý(gerçek kiþiler 732 milyon dolar artýþ,þirketler 995 milyon dolar artýþ)

[deniz43]

Thursday July 29 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
03:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate MoM Prel JUL 0.9% 0.4% 0.5%
03:00 PM
DE
Inflation Rate YoY Prel JUL 3.8% 2.3% 3.3%

Almanya'da Temmuz ayý enflasyonu %0.9 ile piyasa beklentilerinin çok üzerinde gelerek yýllýk enflasyonu %2.3'ten %3.8'e zýplattý.Daha da vahimi Almanya'nýn yýlbaþýndan beri -baz etkisi olmayan- 7 aylýk enflasyonu %4.34,yýllýklandýrýlmýþ enflasyonu ise,%7.56.Küresel piyasalarýn gözü ABD enflasyonunun üzerinde iken,sürpriz bir biçimde Almanya'nýn yýlý ABD'nin de üzerinde rekor bir enflasyon oranýyla kapatmasý þaþýrtýcý olmayacak.Þaþýrtýcý olan ise,Almanya'da ABD de olduðu gibi kuvvetli bir tüketici talebi ve devasa mali teþvikler olmadýðý halde enflasyonun ABD ile yarýþýr seviyede bu kadar yüksek olabilmesi.Birinci dünya savaþý sonrasý yaþadýðý acý hiperenflasyon tecrübesi nedeniyle genetik olarak yüksek enflasyona çok duyarlý bir ülke olan Almanya'nýn merkez bankasý Bundesbank'ýn bundan sonraki Avrupa Merkez Bankasý toplantýlarýnda sesini yükseltmeye baþlayacak mý,ben de merak ediyorum.

[deniz43]

Thursday July 29 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
03:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 6.4% 8.5%

Bugün ABD'den küresel piyasalar için önemli ikinci çeyrek gsyih büyüme verisi gelecek.Piyasa beklentisi ABD ekonomisinin ikinci çeyrekte reel olarak %8.5 büyüdüðü þeklinde.Cari fiyatlarla nominal büyüme yüksek olsa da,benim tahminim , rakamlar gsyih deflatörü ile enflasyondan arýndýrýldýktan sonra reel büyümenin %7.2-%7.3'te kalacaðý þeklinde.

Thursday July 29 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
03:30 PM
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 6.5% 6.4% 8.5%

Piyasa analistlerinin ABD ikinci çeyrek gsyih büyüme tahmini %8.5 iken,benim tahminim %7.2-%7.3 idi.Ama benim tahminim bile yüksek kaldý.J.P Morgan,Goldman Sachs ,Merrill Lynch,Morgan Stanley gibi yatýrým bankalarý ve aracý kurumlarda,bol sýfýrlý maaþ çekleri ile çalýþan ABD'nin en iyi ekonomi fakültelerinden doktoralý araþtýrma departmanlarý uzmanlarýnýn hesaplamalarýnda bu denli sapma olmasý þaþýrtýcý...

Not:Ýkinci çeyrekte ABD ekonomisi cari dolar ile nominal olarak %13.0 ya da 684.4 milyar dolar büyüdü ve ABD ekonomisinin yýllýk gsyih'sý 22.720 trilyon dolara yükseldi.Ýlk çeyrekte bu nominal büyüme oraný %10.9 veya 560.6 milyar dolar idi.

[deniz43]

Thursday July 29 2021 Actual Previous Consensus
03:30 PM
US
PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q2 6.4% 3.8% ®
03:30 PM
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q2 6.1% 2.7% ® 5.9%

Ýkinci çeyrekte Fed'in önem verdiði PCE fiyat endeksinde %6.4'lük,çekirdekte %6.1'lik rekor yükseliþ olmuþ.