HALK Cafe - I

[TRENDHOUND]

2008'in baþýnda start alan o %70'lik devasa satýþ sürecinin sona erip çýkýþ trendinin tekrar baþlamasý toplamda 15 ay sürmüþtü ta Mart 2009'a kadar. Ondan sonrasý da malum, hisse 3 tl den 21.80 e výnladý yani 7 katýna. Þu OFAC mevzusu hissedeki en büyük takozdur ve ortadan kalkar kalkmaz tüm banka hisseleri yeniden deðerlemeye tabi tutulacaklar. HALKB'nin defter deðerinin %29'undan iþlem görüyor olmasý kimine göre trajik kimine göre de komik bir durum. Pratik anlamda batýk bir banka bile bu seviyeden iþlem görmez.

[TRENDHOUND]

Mesela batýk olduðu Merkel tarafýndan bile dillendirilen Deutsche Bank'ýn (DBK) özkaynaklarý 66 milyar Euro'dur, piyasa deðeri ise 20 milyar Euro, yani defter deðerinin %30'undan (HALKB'ninki %29) iþlem görüyor. Kaldý ki Deutsche'de bilanço dýþý tutulan ve sadece dipnotlarda bilgi verilen 50 trilyon Euro'ya yakýn ve piyasa deðerinin 2500 katý kadar türev pozisyonu var. Buna raðmen DBK defter deðerinin %30'undan iþlem görüyor.

[TRENDHOUND]

Sabýrlý olur beklenir diyorsunuz ama ben 10 ay oldu halen bekliyorum sabýrda kalmadý, ayrýca OFAC banka ile ilgili kararýný neden vermiyor, neden bu kadar uzun sürdü..

10 ay nedir yahu? Hiç de uzun bir süre deðildir bu. Borsaya yatýrým yapan biri asgari 3 yýlý göze almalý. Eðer sabrýn yoksa, paraya da ihtiyacýn var ise o zaman senin hissede kalma gücün yok demektir ve bunun sonuçlarýna katlanmaktan baþka yapabileceðin bir þey yok.

[TRENDHOUND]

Özel Sektör Dolar Bazlý Eurotahvilleri / Finansal Kuruluþlar:
ISIN Kodu-Enstrüman-Kupon-Vade-Ýhraç Tarihi-Vadeye kalan (ay/yýl)-Ýhraçtan bugüne (ay/yýl)-Miktar (milyon dolar)-Temiz Fiyat-Birikmiþ F.-Yýllýk Getiri (%)
XS0808632250 ISCTR 3.75 18 3,75 10.10.18 10.04.13 3 m 6 y 750 99,474 1,01 5,34
US900151AD37 ISCTR 3.75 18 3,75 10.10.18 10.04.13 3 m 6 y 750 99,508 1,01 4,49
XS0987355939 VAKBN 5 18 5,00 31.10.18 31.10.13 4 m 5 y 500 99,590 1,07 5,23
XS0994815016 YKBNK 5.25 18 5,25 03.12.18 03.12.13 5 m 5 y 500 99,723 0,64 5,06
US984848AD30 YKBNK 5.25 18 5,25 03.12.18 03.12.13 5 m 5 y 500 99,650 0,64 5,34
US900151AE10 ISCTR 5.5 19 5,50 21.04.19 21.10.13 9 m 6 y 500 99,320 1,31 5,85
XS0982644774 ISCTR 5.5 19 5,50 21.04.19 21.10.13 9 m 6 y 500 99,376 1,31 5,79
XS1057852912 TUFIKA 5.375 19 5,38 24.04.19 24.04.14 9 m 5 y 500 100,257 1,24 4,57
XS0774764152 EXCRTU 5.875 19 5,88 24.04.19 20.04.12 9 m 7 y 750 99,707 1,35 5,72
XS1069383856 HALKBK 4.75 19 4,75 04.06.19 04.06.14 11 m 5 y 500 94,529 0,57 11,18
XS1082151868 ALBRK 6.25 19 6,25 30.06.19 30.06.14 12 m 5 y 350 99,415 0,30 6,49
XS1083936028 TCZIRA 4.25 19 4,25 03.07.19 03.07.14 12 m 5 y 750 98,100 0,17 6,13
XS1089556358 ALNTF 3.125 19 3,13 22.07.19 21.07.14 12 m 5 y 250 98,411 1,52 4,29
XS1057541838 GARAN 4.75 19 4,75 17.10.19 17.04.14 15 m 6 y 750 98,639 1,19 5,57
XS1028938915 YKBNK 5.125 19 5,13 22.10.19 22.10.14 15 m 5 y 550 98,327 1,21 6,37
XS1117601796 TSKBTI 5.375 19 5,38 30.10.19 27.10.14 16 m 5 y 350 97,453 1,15 7,15
XS0874840688 YKBNK 4 20 4,00 22.01.20 22.01.13 18 m 7 y 500 94,538 1,94 7,60
XS1111101314 AKBNK 4 20 4,00 24.01.20 23.01.15 18 m 5 y 500 96,277 1,92 6,31
XS0882347072 HALKBK 3.875 20 3,88 05.02.20 05.02.13 19 m 7 y 750 87,654 1,74 12,75
XS1219733752 TSKBTI 5.125 20 5,13 22.04.20 22.04.15 21 m 5 y 350 94,886 1,21 8,01
XS1121459074 ISCTR 5 20 5,00 30.04.20 30.10.14 22 m 6 y 750 95,606 1,07 7,42
XS1345632811 EXCRTU 5.375 21 5,38 08.02.21 08.02.16 3 y 5 y 500 95,596 2,37 7,06
XS1188073081 HALKBK 4.75 21 4,75 11.02.21 11.02.15 3 y 6 y 500 85,824 2,06 11,14
USM8931TAA71 GARAN 6.25 21 6,25 20.04.21 20.04.11 3 y 10 y 500 98,044 1,51 6,88
XS1223394914 TCZIRA 4.75 21 4,75 29.04.21 29.04.16 3 y 5 y 500 93,011 1,03 7,51
XS1412393172 TSKBTI 4.875 21 4,88 18.05.21 18.05.16 3 y 5 y 300 90,346 0,80 8,58
XS1079527211 ISCTR 5 21 5,00 25.06.21 25.06.14 3 y 7 y 750 91,945 0,31 7,95
XS1439838548 HALKBK 5 21 5,00 13.07.21 13.07.16 3 y 5 y 500 84,633 0,06 11,01
XS1028943089 EXCRTU 5 21 5,00 23.09.21 23.09.14 3 y 7 y 500 92,828 1,58 7,39
XS1390320981 ISCTR 5.375 21 5,38 06.10.21 06.04.16 3 y 6 y 750 91,260 1,51 8,37
US900151AH41 ISCTR 5.375 21 5,38 06.10.21 06.04.16 3 y 6 y 750 91,090 1,51 8,44
XS1508914691 VAKBN 5.5 21 5,50 27.10.21 27.10.16 3 y 5 y 500 90,822 1,22 8,61
XS1571399754 YKBNK 5.75 22 24.02.22 24.02.17 4 y 5 y 600
XS1508390090 ISCTR 5.5 22 21.04.22 21.10.16 4 y 6 y 600
XS1605397394 TCZIRA 5.125 22 5,13 03.05.22 03.05.17 4 y 5 y 600 90,657 1,05 7,96
XS1622626379 VAKBN 5.625 22 5,63 30.05.22 30.05.17 4 y 5 y 500 88,406 0,73 9,15
USM8931TAF68 GARAN 5.25 22 5,25 13.09.22 13.09.12 4 y 10 y 750 91,480 1,81 7,54
XS1684378208 EXCRTU 4.25 22 4,25 18.09.22 18.09.17 4 y 5 y 500 86,781 1,40 7,97
USM0375YAK49 AKBNK 5 22 5,00 24.10.22 24.10.12 4 y 10 y 500 91,805 1,15 7,21
XS0847042024 ISCTR 6 22 6,00 24.10.22 24.10.12 4 y 10 y 1.000 87,558 1,38 9,40
XS0849728190 VAKBN 6 22 6,00 01.11.22 01.11.12 4 y 10 y 672 84,620 1,27 10,29
XS0861979440 YKBNK 5.5 22 5,50 06.12.22 06.12.12 4 y 10 y 1.000 83,712 0,63 10,02
XS1576037284 GARAN 5.875 23 5,88 16.03.23 16.03.17 5 y 6 y 500 91,535 1,97 7,97
XS0927211754 ALBRK 7.75 23 7,75 07.05.23 07.05.13 5 y 10 y 95,546 0,05 10,57
XS1691349010 TCZIRA 5.125 23 5,13 29.09.23 29.09.17 5 y 6 y 500 86,518 1,54 8,30
XS1496463297 EXCRTU 5.375 23 24.10.23 24.10.16 5 y 7 y 500
XS1003016018 ISCTR 7.85 23 7,85 10.12.23 10.12.13 5 y 10 y 400 96,678 0,81 8,44
XS1578203462 ISCTR 6.125 24 6,13 25.04.24 25.04.17 6 y 7 y 1.250 87,402 1,40 8,86
XS1634372954 YKBNK 5.85 24 5,85 21.06.24 21.06.17 6 y 7 y 500 86,015 0,42 8,91
XS1175854923 VAKBN 6.875 25 6,88 03.02.25 02.02.15 7 y 10 y 500 87,012 3,13 10,52
XS1210422074 AKBNK 5.125 25 5,13 31.03.25 31.03.15 7 y 10 y 500 85,585 1,52 7,84
XS1376681067 YKBNK 8.5 26 8,50 09.03.26 08.03.16 8 y 10 y 500 95,523 3,02 10,35
XS1396282177 ALNTF 8.75 26 8,75 16.04.26 15.04.16 8 y 10 y 300 89,003 2,21 11,89
XS1574750292 AKBNK 7.2 27 7,20 16.03.27 15.03.17 9 y 10 y 500 86,242 2,42 9,90
XS1584113184 TSKBTI 7.625 27 7,63 29.03.27 28.03.17 9 y 10 y 300 82,843 2,29 11,00
XS1617531063 GARAN 6.125 27 6,13 24.05.27 23.05.17 9 y 10 y 750 81,063 0,90 9,82
XS1655085485 ODEABK 7.625 27 7,63 01.08.27 01.08.17 9 y 10 y 300 87,950 3,52 10,12
XS1551747733 VAKBN 8 27 8,00 01.11.27 13.02.17 9 y 11 y 228 83,499 1,69 11,06
XS1386178237 FCFIN 7.75 27 7,75 24.11.27 10.05.17 9 y 11 y 300 86,494 2,43 9,71
XS1623796072 ISCTR 7 28 7,00 29.06.28 29.06.17 10 y 11 y 500 80,975 0,35 10,31

[TRENDHOUND]

HALKB'nin hem hissesi hem de yurtdýþýnda iþlem gören dolar bazlý eurotahvilleri çok stresli. HALK eurotahvilleri %11 ila %12.75 arasýnda dolar bazýnda yýllýk getiri sunuyorken diðer TR bankalarýnýn benzer vadeli eurotahvilleri yýlda hemen hemen bunun yarýsý kadar getiri sunuyor. Vade uzadýkça örneðin 2025-2028 yýl aralýðýnda yýllýk getiriler %10-11 aralýðýna çýkýyor, örneðin GARAN YKBNK VAKBN ISCTR eurotahvillerinde olduðu gibi.

[TRENDHOUND]

Turkiye Cross Cur. Swap (USD-TRY / Rate%)
Vade 12.07 11.07
1 Yýl 20,92 21,00
2 Yýl 20,34 20,41
3 Yýl 19,66 19,75
4 Yýl 19,00 19,10
5 Yýl 18,36 18,47
6 Yýl 17,76 17,87
7 Yýl 17,24 17,37
8 Yýl 16,80 16,95
9 Yýl 16,45 16,63
10 Yýl 16,18 16,38

[TRENDHOUND]

Turk CDS'leri (baz puaný)
Vade 12.07 11.07”
1 Yýl 212 189
2 Yýl 250 228
3 Yýl 275 252
5 Yýl 322 300
10 Yýl 404 383

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5 Yýl CDS (baz puaný)
Ülke 12.07 11.07
Arjantin 439 422
Brezilya 248 239
Cin 72 68
G Kore 49 49
G.Afrika 193 191
Kazak 86 86
Macaristan 91 91
Meksika 118 111
Polonya 67 67
Romanya 92 92
Rusya 126 127
Türkiye 322 300
Ukrayna 495 495