Aynı rapordan:
We can also look at re-rating potential in the Turkish market by
looking at the valuation gap between local stocks and EM sector
indices – we find substantial upside between key local stocks in
banks and consumer staples and EM: BIM has 115% upside, Akbank
65% and CocaCola Icecek 133%. We show the charts of BIM,
Türkiye’s biggest cap food retailer when most EM markets have food
retailers, and Akbank, Türkiye’s biggest index weight bank, when
most EM markets have banks. Putting the PE gap back to the longterm
average – and remember the long-term average include a
prolonged period of de-rating – puts the market up 65%-133%, that is
in the range of the 74% upside we could see in the Strong
Commitment scenario.
Put Akbank or BIM on their EM sector average PE and the
stocks would more than double. And CCOLA would more than
triple. We can even see in the charts below there were periods when
Türkiye traded at par with or a premium to EM. Türkiye should be a
highly desirable EM stock market: strong demographic growth, nearshoring
beneficiary with its EU FTA, a good record of corporate
governance and high return companies. While it’s not our base case,
we think it’s a long-term bull case we would not dismiss out of hand
either.
The median discount of the Turkish stocks versus their respective
EM sector is 65% now – it was 45% on average in the last 15
years and 28% in the 2010s. The de-rating is a good explainer for
Türkiye’s long-term poor performance. Reversing that de-rating
offers an obvious route to outperformance. More orthodox monetary
policy should narrow the discount between Türkiye and its EM peers.
Flipping that median 65% discount back to the 28% discount of the
2010’s implies the market should more than double (108% upside),
while moving back to the 15-year average implies 57% upside –
that’s either side of the 74% of the upside in our Strong Commitment
scenario.
Originally Posted by ABKA
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